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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Why does Clinton do bette... » Reply #5

Response to Gman (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 24, 2016, 04:40 PM

5. First, you're incorrect. 1. His name is Nate Silver. 2. He projects Sanders as winning New Hampshire

Second, Nate Silver would be the first to tell you that his projection is nothing more than a current assessment of the current data. As new data comes in, the 538 projection changes. Under the 538 model, new polls are weighed more heavily than older polls. As a result, the 538 projection is currently influenced by the crazy Loras poll which ridiculously gives Clinton an implausible 29% lead. Between now and the caucus, this extreme outlier Loras poll will phase out of the 538 model and the 538 projection will tighten.

Clinton is the PAC-funded favorite and Sanders is the grassroots-funded underdog. Of course she's the favorite. Sanders cannot celebrate the "upset" in Iowa unless Clinton and her supporters keep pushing the "inevitable" theme.

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