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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 11:42 AM

13. If you want to eliminate "house effect" and other poll problems.....

The first think that you can do is use averages of the latest polls - that balances out poll methodology problems and the effects of less than perfect samples.

You can see for the latest Iowa poll average on RealClearPolitics.com which currently shows Hillary with a 7.2% lead:

Real Clear Politics - Iowa

By the way I view the both Loras college and the CNN/ORC poll as outliers which balance each other out.

Better yet you can go to the Five Thirty Eight website where it takes into consideration all of the "house affects" and other poll characteristics by weighting the polls base on their historic tendencies and accuracies and then combines all of the recent polls to produce the odds of each candidate wining.

You can find the Five Thirty Eight Iowa site here where it shows that Hillary has a 82% chance of winning in Iowa:

Five Thirty Eight - Iowa

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