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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #13)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 11:53 AM

14. Wrong. That does not eliminate house effect (it masks it). The Real Clear Politics aggregation

currently factors in the following polls to generate its idea of the current aggregate lead:

CBS News/YouGov (showing Sanders +1)
CNN/ORC (showing Sanders +8)
KBUR (showing Clinton +9)
Loras College (showing Clinton +29)

Which of those polls shows a result WAY outside of the margin of error for every other poll?

The Loras polling is ridiculous, and Loras has been consistently out of the mainstream in all of its prior Iowa polls, and Loras has been consistently out of the mainstream by universally showing Clinton's numbers as way higher than the other pollster's numbers. That is the definition of a house effect. This house effect is not eliminated by the RCP (or Pollster) aggregation so long as the out-of-the-mainstream result is included in the aggregation; instead, the crazy number is averaged in with the plausible numbers.

But don't get me wrong -- I am ecstatic about Hillary setting her expectations in Iowa based on the Loras poll. I LOVE that idea.

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