How the Rasmussen Poll Guarantees Victory -- for Obama [View all]

[fleur-de-lisa]

from The Nation, by Greg Mitchell, September 27, 2012:

"As you may be aware, GOPers have been charging for the past week that all national (and presumably state) polls showing a deep plunge in the fortunes of Romney-Ryan are wrong--for one reason or another but mainly because they are "skewed" and "over sample" Democrats. I've pointed to the fallacies in this in recent days, with GOPers relying on outdated numbers for the percentage of self-identified Republicans in the U.S. Many who once called themselves GOPers now tell pollsters they are Democrats or Independents since they are disgusted with the Republican brand and plan to vote for Obama, and maybe other Dems, this time.

In the fantasy land of the right, however, these polls are all "skewed" because they "under-sample" proud Republicans.

But the conservatives chief defense? The good old Rasmussen Poll, long "skewing" to the right and a favorite of Fox News and Red Staters, and now, reliably, the only poll showing an edge to Romney. This morning's daily tracker finds an even split BUT a 2% edge for Mitt when the "leaners" are added. That's been the case in recent days.

Now, it's true, that Rasmussen's final poll in 2008 came closer to the final tally than nearly anyone else's. But the differences were not great and none had called the race for McCain. The problem for Rasmussen today appears two-fold: It continues to "weigh" the tally based on GOP registration figures--not the current mood of GOP voters--and unlike many polls does not reach those who only use cell phones.

Now, we all know polls can be "wrong" or at least somewhat off. That could even be the case now even without obvious "skewing." But the Rasmussen Poll not only flies in the face of Gallup and Bloomberg (which now find a 6% Obama lead) but other major polls that find an even wider gap--and dozens of state polls which seem to reveal Obama opening up not just leads but big leads in major states such as Ohio, Florida, even Virginia."

more at:

http://www.thenation.com/blog/170201/how-rasmussen-poll-guarantees-victory-obama