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2016 Postmortem

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

7. What would it say about Bernie if he just barely wins

Reply to Quixote1818 (Reply #4)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:32 PM

Jan 2016

a state tailor made for him? Like 90 some percent white northern state.

It means he's dead in the water starting in South Carolina

And he will get wasted come super tuesday.

But I'm not conceding Iowa at all! Nate says 80% chance for a Hillary victory. I will take that all day long lol

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New...Nate Silver...Hillary 80% chance to win Iowa [View all] workinclasszero Jan 2016 OP

I aggregated the last five polls. The MOE is 1,73. Hillary's lead is 3.3%. That's outside the MOE DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #1

She has been in the lead the last 5 polls workinclasszero Jan 2016 #8

Add up the amount of respondents to the last five polls... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #9

The lead has to be twice the MOE to be outside the MOE jfern Jan 2016 #18

Fingers crossed! Agschmid Jan 2016 #2

Fingers working phone banks so that corporate woman doesn't win. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #10

You assume I'm not out doing the same? Agschmid Jan 2016 #12

Please be right, nate arely staircase Jan 2016 #3

Otherwise you are going to have some 'spalini to do - nt KingCharlemagne Jan 2016 #6

There was a 20% chance of rain the other day and we got it Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #4

What would it say about Bernie if he just barely wins workinclasszero Jan 2016 #7

Sure, I suspect Hillary will probably win Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #23

Good luck with that. Fearless Jan 2016 #5

K&R! stonecutter357 Jan 2016 #11

His charts don't seem to account for the shift of O'Malley voters if he can't reach 15% threshold. thesquanderer Jan 2016 #13

I read that at best that would be a 1 or 2% difference workinclasszero Jan 2016 #15

Her chances of winning the nomination are even better than that!! :-D NurseJackie Jan 2016 #14

Oh yeah! workinclasszero Jan 2016 #16

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #17

Time will tell workinclasszero Jan 2016 #19

Nate Silver is not a flawless prophet AZ Progressive Jan 2016 #20

The poll that matters is Monday night workinclasszero Jan 2016 #21

K&R. I.m counting on Nate being right, as usual lunamagica Jan 2016 #22

DU rec...nt SidDithers Jan 2016 #24

how does he come up with 80 percent with the poll being as close as it is JI7 Jan 2016 #25

geography hill2016 Jan 2016 #27

how are they wasted ? if they are in college towns and will not vote JI7 Jan 2016 #28

it's like the electoral system in the general election hill2016 Jan 2016 #29

This is why caucuses are undemocratic. joshcryer Jan 2016 #31

doesn't it depend on how many show up ? JI7 Jan 2016 #32

no hill2016 Jan 2016 #33

Nate Silver is good at what he does. Agnosticsherbet Jan 2016 #26

He's very good at reading polls. But, he is very bad at understanding trends. w4rma Jan 2016 #30