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2016 Postmortem

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

21. The poll that matters is Monday night

Reply to AZ Progressive (Reply #20)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:14 PM

Jan 2016

I know this.

But in the meantime I'm feeling good about my candidates chances.

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New...Nate Silver...Hillary 80% chance to win Iowa [View all] workinclasszero Jan 2016 OP

I aggregated the last five polls. The MOE is 1,73. Hillary's lead is 3.3%. That's outside the MOE DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #1

She has been in the lead the last 5 polls workinclasszero Jan 2016 #8

Add up the amount of respondents to the last five polls... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #9

The lead has to be twice the MOE to be outside the MOE jfern Jan 2016 #18

Fingers crossed! Agschmid Jan 2016 #2

Fingers working phone banks so that corporate woman doesn't win. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #10

You assume I'm not out doing the same? Agschmid Jan 2016 #12

Please be right, nate arely staircase Jan 2016 #3

Otherwise you are going to have some 'spalini to do - nt KingCharlemagne Jan 2016 #6

There was a 20% chance of rain the other day and we got it Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #4

What would it say about Bernie if he just barely wins workinclasszero Jan 2016 #7

Sure, I suspect Hillary will probably win Quixote1818 Jan 2016 #23

Good luck with that. Fearless Jan 2016 #5

K&R! stonecutter357 Jan 2016 #11

His charts don't seem to account for the shift of O'Malley voters if he can't reach 15% threshold. thesquanderer Jan 2016 #13

I read that at best that would be a 1 or 2% difference workinclasszero Jan 2016 #15

Her chances of winning the nomination are even better than that!! :-D NurseJackie Jan 2016 #14

Oh yeah! workinclasszero Jan 2016 #16

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #17

Time will tell workinclasszero Jan 2016 #19

Nate Silver is not a flawless prophet AZ Progressive Jan 2016 #20

The poll that matters is Monday night workinclasszero Jan 2016 #21

K&R. I.m counting on Nate being right, as usual lunamagica Jan 2016 #22

DU rec...nt SidDithers Jan 2016 #24

how does he come up with 80 percent with the poll being as close as it is JI7 Jan 2016 #25

geography hill2016 Jan 2016 #27

how are they wasted ? if they are in college towns and will not vote JI7 Jan 2016 #28

it's like the electoral system in the general election hill2016 Jan 2016 #29

This is why caucuses are undemocratic. joshcryer Jan 2016 #31

doesn't it depend on how many show up ? JI7 Jan 2016 #32

no hill2016 Jan 2016 #33

Nate Silver is good at what he does. Agnosticsherbet Jan 2016 #26

He's very good at reading polls. But, he is very bad at understanding trends. w4rma Jan 2016 #30