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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: What is Sanders path to victory, specifically? [View all]MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)71. You didn't define the two things i asked. You are also saying realistic scenario, and that doesn't
have a precise definition either.
But anyway.
Current scenario:
Could be wrong. If I am correct me here. There are 4051 non-super delegates and 717 super delegates. One must have 2,383 delegates to win.
Not counting super delegates, Bernie has 412 delegates and Hillary has 609 where I see (that's a 197, not 199 difference). Let's assume that whoever wins the majority of the non-super delegates will almost all of the super delegates so let's consider that a non-factor.
Right now, Bernie would need to win 198 more of the 3030 remaining non super delegates than Hillary. That would mean he needs to win
of the remaining 3030 delegates that means Bernie would need to win 1614 (or more) and Hillary would need to not win more than 1416.
1614/3030 = 53.3% (rounded up).
Now for the after March 15th scenario:
This depends how he does on March 15th. If he does as well as fivethirtyeight says he needs to, he will win 326/691 on March 15th, 3/6 on March 12th, 80/166 on March 8th 15/25 on March 6th, and 52/109 on March 5th.
That would put him at 888 delegates.
Hillary would be at 1124 delegates.
A difference of 236 delegates.
The number of remaining delegates would be 2039. Bernie would need to win 1138 of them. That's 55.8%.
For a less favorable Sanders scenario
Let's assume that Sanders has 856 delegates and Hillary has 1156 delegates, a difference of 300. Then he would need to win 1170 of the remaining delegates, which is 57.4% of the remaining delegates.
for an even less favorable scenario
Let's assume Bernie has 806 delegates and Hillary has 1206. A difference of 400.
In which case Bernie would need to win 1220 of the remaining delegates, which is 59.8%.
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LOL, I can't believe repubs tricked DEM's into believing their nonsense this time! nt
BreakfastClub
Mar 2016
#124
A recent candidate said something about staying in the race even after trailing
morningfog
Mar 2016
#3
Perhaps you should go to BernieSanders . com and research research research or do you
bkkyosemite
Mar 2016
#118
No it's to tear down the corrupt politicians in the Democratic Party that bow down
bkkyosemite
Mar 2016
#98
If Dems get blamed? You try to blame it on Bernie LOL...it will be your Queen who will
bkkyosemite
Mar 2016
#101
tear is the word you used...I didn't admit anything. He is trying to make it known
bkkyosemite
Mar 2016
#117
No we have not! We still absolutely feel he will win. You guys cite polls as they are today.
Ed Suspicious
Mar 2016
#16
His pet issues are what the average American's need to address and get rid of those
bkkyosemite
Mar 2016
#99
M.S. in math and Bernie can still win. Your qualifications? It's very unlikely and the polling would
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#37
He's at 84% of his target so far. He is absolutely the underdog now, but if you're claiming
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#46
Define clear and viable paths please, PRECISELY. I am a mathematician after all, and
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#54
You didn't define the two things i asked. You are also saying realistic scenario, and that doesn't
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#71
#Hillarymath. Seriously, what the fuck? I gave mathematical scenarios, not predictions. Is Hillary
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#79
No I didn't. RTFP. I gave the scenario of him being down 300 and being down 400 on
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#90
He only needs to win 58-60% average, not every remaining state. I honestly don't
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#106
Do you have the exact projection for that? Because the only way I'm getting Bernie needing 65% of
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#86
That's a pretty big assumption, IMO. It could be right, but what if it's a 58/42 split?
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#91
Senator Sanders should peer into his conscience and do what he thinks is right.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#40
Not sure what other poster meant but I do too. As for why? chance for my voice to be heard. If Hilla
MillennialDem
Mar 2016
#55
I voted for Bernie in Virginia and while I don't see a path for him to get the nomination I see no
onenote
Mar 2016
#72
That's like asking what hitler's path to victory is after losing in africa, losing on the east..
dubyadiprecession
Mar 2016
#114