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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Who are these "130 economists" that endorse how Bernie pays for his proposals? [View all]kristopher
(29,798 posts)89. You are cherry picking a slip of the tongue
There are two inter-related subjects - 1) regulating Wall Street and 2) the economic impact of his policy proposals to move money from the Wall Street crowd back onto Main Street.
The first, a staple objection since day one, is addressed by the list of 170 economists. And that was the topic Bernie thought was being raised.
https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Wall-St-Letter-1.pdf
The second issue is a more recent bunch of bullshit that was concocted by a very small group of Establishment, ProTPP economists that simply lied about a researcher's (Gerald Friedman) valid work which said that Bernies economic proposals would result in a sustained economic growth rate of 5.6%.
As a recap, here is William Black on the subject:
Krugman and the Gang of 4 Need to Apologize for Smearing Gerald Friedman
Posted on February 21, 2016 by William Black
February 21, 2016 Bloomington, MN
If you depend for your news on the New York Times you have been subjected to a drumbeat of article attacking Bernie Sanders and the conclusion of everyone serious that his economics are daft. In particular, you would know that four prior Chairs of the Presidents Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) (the Gang of 4) have signed an open letter to Bernie that delivered a death blow to his proposals. Further, you would know that anyone who dared to disagree with these four illustrious economists was so deranged that he or she was acting like a Republican in denial of global climate change. The open letter set its sights on a far less famous economist, Gerald Friedman, of U. Mass at Amherst. It unleashed a personalized dismissal of his competence and integrity. Four of the Nations top economists against one non-famous economists at a school that studies heterodox economics. That sounds like a fight that the referee should stop in the first round before Friedman is pummeled to death. But why did Paul Krugman need to tag in to try to save the Gang of 4 from being routed?
Krugman proclaimed that the Gang of 4 had crushed Friedman in a TKO. Tellingly, Krugman claimed that anyone who disagreed with the Gang of 4 must be beyond the pale (like Friedman and Bernie). Indeed, Krugman was so eager to fend off any analysis of the Group of 4s attacks that he competed with himself rhetorically as to what inner circle of Hell any supporter of Friedman should be consigned. In the 10:44 a.m. variant, Krugman dismissed Bernie as not ready for prime time and decreed that it was illegitimate to critique the Gang of 4s critique.
The implicit message is that four famous economists had to be correct, therefore anyone who disagreed with them must be a conspiracy theorist who is very much part of the problem. Paul doesnt explain what the problem is, but he sure makes it sound awful. Logically, the problem has to be progressives supporting Bernie.
Two hours later, Paul decided that his poisoned pen had not been toxic enough, he now denounced Sanders as a traitor to the progressives who was on his way to making Donald Trump president. To point out the problems in the Gang of 4s attack on Friedman was to treat them as right-wing enemies. Why was Krugman so fervid in its efforts to smear Friedman and prevent any critique of the Gang of 4s smear that he revised his article within two hours and amped up his rhetoric to a shrill cry of pain? Well, the second piece admits that Gang of 4s smear of Friedman didnt get into specifics and that progressives were already rising in disgust at Pauls arrogance and eagerness to sign onto a smear that claimed rigor but actually didnt get into specifics while denouncing a scholar. Paul, falsely, portrayed Friedman as a Bernie supporter. Like Krugman, Friedman is actually a Hillary supporter.
If we combine both of Pauls screeds we see that the only way to disagree with a prominent economist is to demonize them as either corrupt or enemies. ...
Posted on February 21, 2016 by William Black
February 21, 2016 Bloomington, MN
If you depend for your news on the New York Times you have been subjected to a drumbeat of article attacking Bernie Sanders and the conclusion of everyone serious that his economics are daft. In particular, you would know that four prior Chairs of the Presidents Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) (the Gang of 4) have signed an open letter to Bernie that delivered a death blow to his proposals. Further, you would know that anyone who dared to disagree with these four illustrious economists was so deranged that he or she was acting like a Republican in denial of global climate change. The open letter set its sights on a far less famous economist, Gerald Friedman, of U. Mass at Amherst. It unleashed a personalized dismissal of his competence and integrity. Four of the Nations top economists against one non-famous economists at a school that studies heterodox economics. That sounds like a fight that the referee should stop in the first round before Friedman is pummeled to death. But why did Paul Krugman need to tag in to try to save the Gang of 4 from being routed?
Krugman proclaimed that the Gang of 4 had crushed Friedman in a TKO. Tellingly, Krugman claimed that anyone who disagreed with the Gang of 4 must be beyond the pale (like Friedman and Bernie). Indeed, Krugman was so eager to fend off any analysis of the Group of 4s attacks that he competed with himself rhetorically as to what inner circle of Hell any supporter of Friedman should be consigned. In the 10:44 a.m. variant, Krugman dismissed Bernie as not ready for prime time and decreed that it was illegitimate to critique the Gang of 4s critique.
In Sanderss case, I dont think its ideology as much as being not ready for prime time and also of not being willing to face up to the reality that the kind of drastic changes hes proposing, no matter how desirable, would produce a lot of losers as well as winners.
And if your response to these concerns is that theyre all corrupt, all looking for jobs with Hillary, you are very much part of the problem.
The implicit message is that four famous economists had to be correct, therefore anyone who disagreed with them must be a conspiracy theorist who is very much part of the problem. Paul doesnt explain what the problem is, but he sure makes it sound awful. Logically, the problem has to be progressives supporting Bernie.
Two hours later, Paul decided that his poisoned pen had not been toxic enough, he now denounced Sanders as a traitor to the progressives who was on his way to making Donald Trump president. To point out the problems in the Gang of 4s attack on Friedman was to treat them as right-wing enemies. Why was Krugman so fervid in its efforts to smear Friedman and prevent any critique of the Gang of 4s smear that he revised his article within two hours and amped up his rhetoric to a shrill cry of pain? Well, the second piece admits that Gang of 4s smear of Friedman didnt get into specifics and that progressives were already rising in disgust at Pauls arrogance and eagerness to sign onto a smear that claimed rigor but actually didnt get into specifics while denouncing a scholar. Paul, falsely, portrayed Friedman as a Bernie supporter. Like Krugman, Friedman is actually a Hillary supporter.
Sanders needs to disassociate himself from this kind of fantasy economics right now. If his campaign responds instead by lashing out well, a campaign that treats Alan Krueger, Christy Romer, and Laura Tyson as right-wing enemies is well on its way to making Donald Trump president.
If we combine both of Pauls screeds we see that the only way to disagree with a prominent economist is to demonize them as either corrupt or enemies. ...
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2016/02/krugman-gang-4-need-apologize-smearing-gerald-friedman.html
This is the full text of the letter from noted economist Jamie Galbraith where he takes Krugman and the Gang of 4 ( to the woodshed.
Jamie Galbraiths Letter to Former CEA Chairs
February 18, 2016
I was highly interested to see your letter of yesterdays date to Senator Sanders and Professor Gerald Friedman. I respond here as a former Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee the congressional counterpart to the CEA.
You write that you have applied rigor to your analyses of economic proposals by Democrats and Republicans. On reading this sentence I looked to the bottom of the page, to find a reference or link to your rigorous review of Professor Friedmans study. I found nothing there.
You go on to state that Professor Friedman makes extreme claims that cannot be supported by the economic evidence. You object to the projection of huge beneficial impacts on growth rates, income and employment that exceed even the most grandiose predictions by Republicans about the impact of their tax cut proposals.
Matthew Yglesias makes an important point about your letter:
So, lets first ask whether an economic growth rate, as projected, of 5.3 percent per year is, as you claim, grandiose. There are not many ambitious experiments in economic policy with which to compare it, so lets go back to the Reagan years. What was the actual average real growth rate in 1983, 1984, and 1985, following the enactment of the Reagan tax cuts in 1981? Just under 5.4 percent. Thats a point of history, like it or not.
You write that no credible economic research supports economic impacts of these magnitudes. But how did Professor Friedman make his estimates? The answer is in his paper. What Professor Friedman did, was to use the standard impact assumptions and forecasting methods of the mainstream economists and institutions. For example, Professor Friedman starts with a fiscal multiplier of 1.25, and shades it down to the range of 0.8 by the mid 2020s. Is this not credible? If thats your claim, its an indictment of the methods of (for instance) the CBO, the OMB, and the CEA.
To be sure, skepticism about standard forecasting methods is perfectly reasonable. Im a skeptic myself. My 2014 book The End of Normal is all about problems with mainstream forecasting.
In the specific case of this paper, one can quibble with the out-year multipliers, or with the productivity assumptions, or with the presumed impact of a higher minimum wage. One can invoke the trade deficit or the exchange rate. Professor Friedman makes all of these points himself. But those issues are well within mainstream norms.
There is no magic asterisk, no strange theory involved here. And the main effect of adjusting the assumptions, which would a perfectly reasonable thing to do, would be to curtail the growth rate after a few years not at the beginning, when it would matter most.
It is not fair or honest to claim that Professor Friedmans methods are extreme. On the contrary, with respect to forecasting method, they are largely mainstream. Nor is it fair or honest to imply that you have given Professor Friedmans paper a rigorous review. You have not.
What you have done, is to light a fire under Paul Krugman, who is now using his high perch to airily dismiss the Friedman paper as nonsense. Paul is an immensely powerful figure, and many people rely on him for careful assessments. It seems clear that he has made no such assessment in this case.
Instead, Paul relies on you to impugn an economist with far less reach, whose work is far more careful, in point of fact, than your casual dismissal of it. He and you also imply that Professor Friedman did his work for an unprofessional motive. But let me point out, in case you missed it, that Professor Friedman is a political supporter of Secretary Clinton. His motives are, on the face of it, not political.
For the record, in case youre curious, Im not tied to Professor Friedman in any way. But the powerful such as Paul and yourselves should be careful where you step.
Lets turn, finally, to the serious question. What does the Friedman paper really show? The answer is quite simple, and the exercise is while not perfect almost entirely ordinary.
What the Friedman paper shows, is that under conventional assumptions, the projected impact of Senator Sanders proposals stems from their scale and ambition. When you dare to do big things, big results should be expected. The Sanders program is big, and when you run it through a standard model, you get a big result.
That, by the way, is the lesson of the Reagan era like it or not. It is a lesson that, among todays political leaders, only Senator Sanders has learned.
Yours,
(Jamie)
James K. Galbraith
Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee, 1981-2
February 18, 2016
I was highly interested to see your letter of yesterdays date to Senator Sanders and Professor Gerald Friedman. I respond here as a former Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee the congressional counterpart to the CEA.
You write that you have applied rigor to your analyses of economic proposals by Democrats and Republicans. On reading this sentence I looked to the bottom of the page, to find a reference or link to your rigorous review of Professor Friedmans study. I found nothing there.
You go on to state that Professor Friedman makes extreme claims that cannot be supported by the economic evidence. You object to the projection of huge beneficial impacts on growth rates, income and employment that exceed even the most grandiose predictions by Republicans about the impact of their tax cut proposals.
Matthew Yglesias makes an important point about your letter:
Its noteworthy that the former CEA chairs criticizing Friedman didnt bother to run through a detailed explanation of their problems with the paper. To them, the 5.3 percent figure was simply absurd on its face, and it was good enough for them to say so, relying on their authority to generate media coverage.
So, lets first ask whether an economic growth rate, as projected, of 5.3 percent per year is, as you claim, grandiose. There are not many ambitious experiments in economic policy with which to compare it, so lets go back to the Reagan years. What was the actual average real growth rate in 1983, 1984, and 1985, following the enactment of the Reagan tax cuts in 1981? Just under 5.4 percent. Thats a point of history, like it or not.
You write that no credible economic research supports economic impacts of these magnitudes. But how did Professor Friedman make his estimates? The answer is in his paper. What Professor Friedman did, was to use the standard impact assumptions and forecasting methods of the mainstream economists and institutions. For example, Professor Friedman starts with a fiscal multiplier of 1.25, and shades it down to the range of 0.8 by the mid 2020s. Is this not credible? If thats your claim, its an indictment of the methods of (for instance) the CBO, the OMB, and the CEA.
To be sure, skepticism about standard forecasting methods is perfectly reasonable. Im a skeptic myself. My 2014 book The End of Normal is all about problems with mainstream forecasting.
In the specific case of this paper, one can quibble with the out-year multipliers, or with the productivity assumptions, or with the presumed impact of a higher minimum wage. One can invoke the trade deficit or the exchange rate. Professor Friedman makes all of these points himself. But those issues are well within mainstream norms.
There is no magic asterisk, no strange theory involved here. And the main effect of adjusting the assumptions, which would a perfectly reasonable thing to do, would be to curtail the growth rate after a few years not at the beginning, when it would matter most.
It is not fair or honest to claim that Professor Friedmans methods are extreme. On the contrary, with respect to forecasting method, they are largely mainstream. Nor is it fair or honest to imply that you have given Professor Friedmans paper a rigorous review. You have not.
What you have done, is to light a fire under Paul Krugman, who is now using his high perch to airily dismiss the Friedman paper as nonsense. Paul is an immensely powerful figure, and many people rely on him for careful assessments. It seems clear that he has made no such assessment in this case.
Instead, Paul relies on you to impugn an economist with far less reach, whose work is far more careful, in point of fact, than your casual dismissal of it. He and you also imply that Professor Friedman did his work for an unprofessional motive. But let me point out, in case you missed it, that Professor Friedman is a political supporter of Secretary Clinton. His motives are, on the face of it, not political.
For the record, in case youre curious, Im not tied to Professor Friedman in any way. But the powerful such as Paul and yourselves should be careful where you step.
Lets turn, finally, to the serious question. What does the Friedman paper really show? The answer is quite simple, and the exercise is while not perfect almost entirely ordinary.
What the Friedman paper shows, is that under conventional assumptions, the projected impact of Senator Sanders proposals stems from their scale and ambition. When you dare to do big things, big results should be expected. The Sanders program is big, and when you run it through a standard model, you get a big result.
That, by the way, is the lesson of the Reagan era like it or not. It is a lesson that, among todays political leaders, only Senator Sanders has learned.
Yours,
(Jamie)
James K. Galbraith
Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee, 1981-2
Your "question" fits right in with the rest of that dishonest clusterf%$k.
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Who are these "130 economists" that endorse how Bernie pays for his proposals? [View all]
MaggieD
Mar 2016
OP
Heard of Google? It's an internet thingy where you can go look stuff up. Try it. Learn somthing f
pdsimdars
Mar 2016
#73
Well, it sounds like that "these people" are confusing Bernie for Republicans. I'm sure that even
desmiller
Mar 2016
#82
I found this online ... I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for or not.
NurseJackie
Mar 2016
#72
Here is the link to the list. Try google next time before acusing someone of lying.
Vattel
Mar 2016
#24
lol, you are so dishonest that you cant admit that the list to which he referred exists.
Vattel
Mar 2016
#29
It's a list of 134 people that explicitly sign on to a statement that says, among other things,
Vattel
Mar 2016
#42
No, he didn't misspeak. The list of 134 contains both economists and healthcare experts.
Vattel
Mar 2016
#66
...and it's been documented that they don't have an economic analysis that stands up....
Sancho
Mar 2016
#67
No, the OP asks for the economists that have analyzed the data and agree with the plan...
Sancho
Mar 2016
#69
The lie is not that the list exists....the lie is what they say the cost is....
Sancho
Mar 2016
#100
Some people refuse to be budged from a position and never let reality get in the way.
guillaumeb
Mar 2016
#81