2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: There are 4 contests this weekend. Sanders is favored in 3 out of 4: Go Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine! [View all]Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)and tomorrow (and the betting markets have a pretty good record of accuracy for such short short-term predictions).
I am discounting (but not ignoring) betting market predictions about events months and months away for which data is still being gathered. Betting markets are not particularly accurate at predicting events months and months away for which data is still being gathered (this summer, for example, Jeb! was a huge betting market favorite and Trump was a longshot).
Sanders' long term chances have gone up and down in the betting markets, and they will continue to go up and down (for example, they will go UP when Sanders wins Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine this weekend; they may gown the week after that; they will rise during the stretch from March 22 to April 9).
This is how betting markets work.