2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: There are 4 contests this weekend. Sanders is favored in 3 out of 4: Go Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine! [View all]Gothmog
(145,130 posts)Winning three small states that do not represent the demographics of the Democratic Party are not likely to affect the betting or predictive markets given that the markets expect that the results of the Louisiana primary will likely offset these results. With proportional representation, it is difficult to overcome the either pledge delegate lead or the total delegate lead enjoyed by Clinton. The predictive markets are well aware of the number of delegates at stake and have factored this into the long term odds or probability of Sanders becoming the nominee. The predictive markets have also factored in the likely-hood of super delegates flipping.
How many super delegates do you know. I saw that Gilberto Hinojosa committed this week. http://www.democraticunderground.com/110762736 Good luck in convincing a super delegate like Chairman Hinojosa to change his vote to a candidate who will likely hurt down ballot races in Texas. Again, the current delegate lead enjoyed by Hillary Clinton is real and will be very difficult to overcome.
You can cherry pick favorable results for individual states to your hearts content but the results in these states are not going to materially affect the odds of Sanders being the nominee of the Democratic Party.
If you really believe that Sanders will be the nominee, then the current odds should be attractive to you. You can lock these odds in by buying an option agreement on one of the markets. The purchase of such an option or the placing of the bet depending on the market would lock the returns in now. While the odds will change in the future, you can lock in a favorable pricing now if you so believe your own analysis.