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2016 Postmortem

BernieforPres2016

(3,017 posts)

16. They do the same thing in sports

Reply to jeff47 (Reply #13)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 07:58 PM

Mar 2016

They always rationalize what happened after the fact to explain why they weren't really wrong. They pretend that there's a level of precision to their forecasting that does not exist.

If their sports models were really so good and they were the geniuses they pretend they are, they would keep them to themselves and wipe out the Las Vegas sports books.

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Did 538 predict Hillary would lose Colorado or Oklahoma or Minnesota or Nebraska or Kansas or Maine? [View all] Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP

They predicted bernie would lose every single state Csainvestor Mar 2016 #1

yes itsrobert Mar 2016 #2

It shows up a little differently on my computer: Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #5

ok itsrobert Mar 2016 #6

Are you arguing that 538 is flawless because they predict both possible outcomes and one is right? Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #8

Both are within the margin of error itsrobert Mar 2016 #10

Polls have margins of error. Predictions do not. So does 538 get credit for a "win" when it predicts Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #14

How did you find those pages? LAS14 Mar 2016 #15

This is what I get when I first open... LAS14 Mar 2016 #17

Click on "Primary Forecasts" and scroll to the result you want (past races are at the bottom) Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #18

Wondering if Bernie's campaign is so non-traditional, they can not catch the data? kgnu_fan Mar 2016 #3

His objective might be a little different now. stillwaiting Mar 2016 #7

Are they manipulating data? Or they don't have correct data? kgnu_fan Mar 2016 #11

They seem to be attempting to control the narrative more these days. stillwaiting Mar 2016 #12

It is not just tehm, starting in 2000 nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #4

There are some threads on DU with some wildly wrong predictions. noamnety Mar 2016 #9

Their innovation is to never actually make a prediction. jeff47 Mar 2016 #13

They do the same thing in sports BernieforPres2016 Mar 2016 #16