Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

cemaphonic

(4,138 posts)

14. Agreed

Reply to Dem2 (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:35 AM

Mar 2016

538's statistical models may well have been flawed, and I'm sure they and others will be studying this primary for some time. But ultimately, it was the polls themselves that were consistently off from the final result.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

36 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver at 538 said Bernie's chance of winning MI was <1% [View all] Kelvin Mace Mar 2016 OP

Yeah, Nate screwed up Champion Jack Mar 2016 #1

I think Nate is plugged into the wrong set of clues and can't see the ones that work now. Ford_Prefect Mar 2016 #2

Exactly. What was true in past elections isn't the same today. Cleita Mar 2016 #7

Imagine that...... Ford_Prefect Mar 2016 #9

Nate has his Hillary blinders on. PonyUp Mar 2016 #24

538 is toast RobertEarl Mar 2016 #3

538 is snake oil Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #4

I guess Nate Silver needs some polish to remove the tarnish on Cleita Mar 2016 #5

Those crazy voters marions ghost Mar 2016 #6

I'm sick of Nate Silver. earthside Mar 2016 #8

"MATH!" indeed. SMC22307 Mar 2016 #12

Doesn't say much about Nate Dem2 Mar 2016 #10

Agreed cemaphonic Mar 2016 #14

Silver tweeted something about having DirkGently Mar 2016 #11

Silver is full of shit BernieforPres2016 Mar 2016 #17

Been saying that for years. Dawgs Mar 2016 #21

I want more decimal points. Was it less than 0.1%? 0.01%? jfern Mar 2016 #13

Less than 1% is NOT 0% TheDormouse Mar 2016 #15

One possible avenue of defense for Nate. pa28 Mar 2016 #16

I don't buy that BernieforPres2016 Mar 2016 #18

There is no defense. His only job is to be accurate. If he fails at that it's his fault. Dawgs Mar 2016 #22

Garbage in, garbage out. Flying Squirrel Mar 2016 #19

Silver was once right madokie Mar 2016 #20

Even people in the OTHER group are throwing him under the bus. VulgarPoet Mar 2016 #23

K & R! Cobalt Violet Mar 2016 #25

That's better than the chance to win lotto Renew Deal Mar 2016 #26

... PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #27

Just like DU, many Hilary supporters do not accept the revolution and don't see it coming...yet. Kip Humphrey Mar 2016 #28

Well, that's just wrong. LWolf Mar 2016 #29

Those that don't "see" the Revolution have some serious political "cataracts". ladjf Mar 2016 #31

Yep. nt LWolf Mar 2016 #32

To borrow a line from "The Last of the Mohicans", ladjf Mar 2016 #30

They keep polling Democratic voters. Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #33

Nate's reputation is less than zero. Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #34

Lots of people seem to have no or little understanding of his modeling/predictions. LonePirate Mar 2016 #35

Exactly. Kelvin Mace Mar 2016 #36