Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: HRC Campaign Manager "Mook warns of defeat in Ohio, Illinois, Mo., 'outspent, outraised' by Sanders" [View all]Jarqui
(10,122 posts)35. This is an important quote and reinforces findings I've made
"Leaving these important caveats aside, our results suggest that Bernie Sanders is likely to present a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in the remaining Democratic primaries. Clinton has had a big advantage in the nomination race thus far because so many of the contests have been in the South. After next Tuesday, however, there will be no more primaries in the South. Based on the results presented here, she will be favored over Sanders only in non-southern states in which the nonwhite share of the Democratic primary electorate is at least 40 percent. The key question may be whether the huge delegate lead she has built up by winning southern primaries by landslide margins will be enough to sustain her through the rest of the primary season."
The primary is going to change after the 15th. Sabato's prediction works out to Clinton gaining around 96 delegates on Mar 15th - which I would have guessed is about the best Sanders could do. According to Sabato, Sanders could do better because Sabato is presenting the mean of his results. So that surprises me a little.
The one criticism I have with Sabato's approach is his collective non-white vote. I think the black vote broken out, a non-white balance and the white vote might improve the accuracy of his approach.
He takes into account regional relationships so Bernie doing better with blacks in the north presumably would get picked up.
But the most important part is another opinion that the race is going to change after March 15th in Bernie's favor to the extent Sabato is wondering if Hillary's lead will hold up.
Hillary's status is that she's still the clear favorite. But the description may have slipped from "inevitable" to "electable in the primary?" according to Sabato.
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
67 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
HRC Campaign Manager "Mook warns of defeat in Ohio, Illinois, Mo., 'outspent, outraised' by Sanders" [View all]
Attorney in Texas
Mar 2016
OP
The primary calendar doesn't go "full Bernie" until March 21 when Hillary begins a 0 for 9 stretch
Vote2016
Mar 2016
#2
Clearly, you are not from TX or have been there. TX is TX. It is not the south or the west.
AgadorSparticus
Mar 2016
#59
Other than Arizona (which looks close) I see Hillary losing like dominoes falling
Vote2016
Mar 2016
#40
The question is not how many delegates Sanders wins in those 8 states; the question is how many
Vote2016
Mar 2016
#57
Exactly, everyone knows Hillary tells one audience one thing and another audience something else
Fumesucker
Mar 2016
#12
They are just trying to control expectations. Hillary is favored in all these states by big margins.
Cheese Sandwich
Mar 2016
#11
And get Maddi's dollar... to make it look like she has more small donors... nt
revbones
Mar 2016
#33