2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I am not bothering with the story we just ran [View all]SDJay
(1,089 posts)1. The Anti-HRC Factor - the RWNJ media has been stoking hate for HRC for 25 years now. Millions of people who listen to this crap and simply swallow it as fact have been waiting to go vote against her. Will millions show up in November to do that? I'd say the chances of that are probably slightly better than 50/50.
2. The Anti-Drumpf Factor - People on the right hate HRC. People in the middle are indifferent towards HRC. People on the left are a mix of love her/indifferent. People in the middle and on the left fear what Drumpf would do to this country. Will millions show up to vote against Drumpf? I think that's also probably better than a 50/50 chance after the whole country gets a look at what he's saying and doing and is horrified.
3. The Pro-HRC Factor - HRC obviously has very loyal and passionate supporters inside the Democratic party, but that's generally where the passion stops. She's not going to motivate independents to come and vote for her. I's will vote for her because of #2.
4. The Pro-Drumpf Factor - Unlike HRC, Drumpf's supporters are not repuke loyalists or longtime members. They are feces flingers who really can't be categorized as anything but that.
What does all of this mumbo jumbo in my head mean? You've got relatively small but probably somewhat equally sized bases of support for each candidate. You've got hate for one candidate that's probably about equal in voting size as fear/horror for the other candidate. I think it'll be impossible to predict what the soft middle will do in November this time.
Why? Because this is going to be one of the most hateful, spiteful, nasty, dirty and purely awful campaigns we have ever seen. It's going to be overtly personal and will most likely lead to millions of people who just want it to go away and who will not bother voting.
I don't like it when the candidate I support - and as said I'll support HRC assuming she's the nominee - is the one people are voting for defensively. I'm quite nervous about this and IMO all the people already calling for an HRC landslide are living in a dream world.