2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)On calls for Bernie Supporters to give up [View all]
Last edited Thu Mar 17, 2016, 06:17 PM - Edit history (1)
back in 2008 HRC staid until the bitter end. She could not get it either. Mathematically she was out actually earlier than Tuesday. As to the mathematically... it is nearly impossible right now for Sanders, but stranger things have happened in politics. So why would a politician do that? Well, if you know how politics is played you would understand it, and would prefer it, even if you support HRC at this point. The reasons go from the purely banal (not on the part of the campaign mind you), to the very political.
The banal, well I would like to have my say... and most states have yet to vote. I find the primary system to be a serious problem becuase the country is not center right, but reforms to this system will not come until we have a very serious crisis. So yes, I would like to have my vote. Who I vote for is my business. (and quite frankly the primary as usual is an after thought for me at this point)
But the political is what matters.
The larger the delegate count, the more yes demands in the actual party platform that Sanders can put in. He can also have a role in how the policies of the party are written. If he folds now, that power will be minimal. This is why Clinton staid to the bitter end in 2008.
So folding now means conceding any kind of role that he has earned. This is why he will stay until the convention or until money runs out.
This is how the game is played. Why many of the Hillary supporters want him to drop out. I would recommend you take a hint from her and just let the process play out. She said as much the other day.
As to attacks and smears. Pointing out that HRC voted to go to war is not a smear. Those have started for real, and if you believe those are smears... ohh boy. will be fun to watch. Becuase what is coming is epic.
Oh and one last thing... from talking to people (mostly online this week), the tone and vitriol on message boards will depress the vote. It is just one more reason. I doubt it is the only reason for voters to stay home or vote third party, but you people will need these voters to replace the legion of conservadems that will cross for Trump. This is not idle speculation, This is history. This is the Reagan and Bush coalition all over again. So as much as some of you do despise the left, guess what skippy, you need them to win. All I am going to say is keep it up. I'm gong to enjoy the show. And god knows it is quite a show. What happened to that boring primary I was promised? One party going away, possibly one brokered convention, maybe two (Mathematically depending on the modeling you use, and I hate math) it is possible that neither Clinton or Sanders will reach the pledged delegates. It is unlikely but this one of those years.
What is not to like, really
For the record, this betrays the growing political instability in the United States. There I go again, doing actual analysis. When will I learn to just stick to puppies, entertainment and car chases?