Hillary's delegate lead shrinks! March 16th it was 319 elected delegates. On April 7th 212 delegates

[paulthompson]

12. Maryland

Note that a Maryland poll came out today showing Sanders down by 15 points, 55 to 40. Hatlem is estimating Sanders will lose Maryland by 25 points, yet Sanders is already doing better than that. And as we've seen in state after state, his numbers keep going up as the election date nears.

Based on recent polls, I think Hatlem is being too pessimistic with the remaining April primaries. But he also has some over-optimistic numbers after that, in my opinion, like having Sanders win big in Kentucky. If Sanders does well in the rest of April, the numbers can be adjusted for all the rest of the primaries to give Sanders a very realistic chance of winning the majority of pledged delegates.

Also, we've seen in Nevada that Sanders gained three delegates and Clinton lost two because not enough of her people showed up in a later event. What if the same happens in the other caucus states? A couple more delegates here and there adds up. That's exactly what happened with Obama vs. Clinton back in 2008, because then, like now, Clinton's supporters lacked enthusiasm to show up at all the caucus meetings in sufficient numbers.