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Tue Apr 12, 2016, 12:55 AM

 

How many registered Democrats in New York state? 5.26 million? [View all]

Last edited Tue Apr 12, 2016, 09:55 PM - Edit history (1)

That is doubtless an accurate number, posted below. It is down a bit from the most recent number I had been able to find, which was from 2006 (5.4 million registered Democrats). It is doubtless up from last year, thanks to a surge of new registrations leading up to the March 25 deadline, with 40,000 just in one 10-day period (March 10-20).

The total number of voters in 2008, when New York was rolled into "Super Tuesday" in February: 1.8 million (Clinton 1.07 million, Obama 751 thousand).

This time New York is the only primary on April 19, and the candidates are almost exclusively invested in it, with almost 2 weeks lead time. A media shitstorm is underway and almost everyone thinks this vote is likely to decide a hotly contested fight for the nomination.

Most polls in the contests so far in this primary season have significantly underestimated the results for the insurgent candidacy. Sanders' barnstorming is packing venues and parks in the tens of thousands.

Because of these disparate factors, it would be misguided to pretend any "likely voter" model is particularly likely. Enjoy the uncertainty. Life is better with surprises.

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Reply How many registered Democrats in New York state? 5.26 million? [View all]
JackRiddler Apr 2016 OP
CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #1
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #2
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #3
GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #4
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #5
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #6
nadinbrzezinski Apr 2016 #7
brooklynite Apr 2016 #8
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #9
brooklynite Apr 2016 #10
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #11
LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #14
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #12
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #13
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #15