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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » 538 had the Clinton Polls... » Reply #5

Response to pantsonfire (Original post)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 07:42 PM

5. Turnout - motivation - is everything.

 

Screw the polls, we've been allowing this constant manipulation and distraction. What happened to issues? Blah blah blah the numbers always say the result is predetermined, so only losers even talk about those!

Primary polling is the most dubious. If they turn out right in one case or the other, do they audit whether their "likely voter" model actually held up, or whether it was still only a lucky hit?

538 treated Michigan the same way the faux-experts treated the 2007-8 crash: Astonishing! Black swan! No one could have imagined!

Did they say something was wrong, and change the model? Ha! They were off in Wisconsin again by 6-8 points.

In any case, if it really was a hard science and they could predict perfectly, what would that mean? Would we still have elections?! Why bother, right? No doubt this has affected turnout - possibly even against Clinton, since she's always such a damn lock.

It's deeply unethical how the pollsters don't acknowledge their influence, and just keep pretending they're impartial observers and proliferating new variations of the same bullshit.

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Arrow 33 replies Author Time Post
pantsonfire Apr 2016 OP
GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #1
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #2
Trenzalore Apr 2016 #26
jcgoldie Apr 2016 #14
GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #22
jcgoldie Apr 2016 #23
reformist2 Apr 2016 #3
BreakfastClub Apr 2016 #4
LineReply Turnout - motivation - is everything.
JackRiddler Apr 2016 #5
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #6
Tarc Apr 2016 #7
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #16
DCBob Apr 2016 #8
paulthompson Apr 2016 #9
DCBob Apr 2016 #11
NuclearDem Apr 2016 #10
jfern Apr 2016 #13
Adrahil Apr 2016 #19
jfern Apr 2016 #25
Adrahil Apr 2016 #30
jfern Apr 2016 #31
Adrahil Apr 2016 #33
jfern Apr 2016 #12
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #15
pdsimdars Apr 2016 #17
Adrahil Apr 2016 #18
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #20
jcgoldie Apr 2016 #21
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #24
Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #27
Csainvestor Apr 2016 #28
pantsonfire Apr 2016 #29
Renew Deal Apr 2016 #32
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