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2016 Postmortem

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)

30. Self-identified

Reply to jfern (Reply #25)

Tue Apr 12, 2016, 10:27 PM

Apr 2016

The only data is from exit polls, so it has to be self-identified. But the reality is that Clinton does MUCH better in closed primaries. There can be no last second influx of "independent" voters.

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Highlight:

538 had the Clinton Polls-Plus forecast at >99% with an average polling lead of 21 points. [View all] pantsonfire Apr 2016 OP

Yep I take 538 with a pinch of salt they are on the Clinton dole GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #1

They are not, they just have a methodology that isn't perfect... pantsonfire Apr 2016 #2

Michigan's last competitive Presidential Primary was 1992 Trenzalore Apr 2016 #26

oops jcgoldie Apr 2016 #14

Who did 538 consult to unskew Michigan GeorgiaPeanuts Apr 2016 #22

I think you have your slogan jcgoldie Apr 2016 #23

That's embarrassing. ;) reformist2 Apr 2016 #3

Raises hope for whom?? nt BreakfastClub Apr 2016 #4

Turnout - motivation - is everything. JackRiddler Apr 2016 #5

I >99% agree with you, MoE, last week many people decide who to vote for.... pantsonfire Apr 2016 #6

Open primary vs closed primary. Apples and oranges Tarc Apr 2016 #7

Just google Michigan Open Primary.....n/t pantsonfire Apr 2016 #16

The Independents in Michigan caused that. DCBob Apr 2016 #8

No early voting paulthompson Apr 2016 #9

Wont matter... she already has big lead with regular LVs. DCBob Apr 2016 #11

Michigan was an open primary. NuclearDem Apr 2016 #10

Pollsters know about these things jfern Apr 2016 #13

Many of the polls way underestimated Adrahil Apr 2016 #19

People self indentified independents or registered independents? jfern Apr 2016 #25

Self-identified Adrahil Apr 2016 #30

Closed primaries have more self identified independents who are registered as Democrats jfern Apr 2016 #31

I'd agree with that. Adrahil Apr 2016 #33

I wonder if it was greater than 99.9% or 99.99%. Bernie narrowly winning NY would be less shocking jfern Apr 2016 #12

I was thinking Lysol percentage...so 99.99. n/t pantsonfire Apr 2016 #15

Woo-hoo, slam dunk for Bernie!!! pdsimdars Apr 2016 #17

Michigan was an open primary Adrahil Apr 2016 #18

Since then? What about all the other demographics? n/t pantsonfire Apr 2016 #20

The problem for Bernie jcgoldie Apr 2016 #21

He needs to win in NY and win about 56.5% from there to tie... pantsonfire Apr 2016 #24

Open primary Michigan. Closed in NY with no chance of changing affiliation. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #27

Hillary was supposed to win Wisconsin as well Csainvestor Apr 2016 #28

yeah and that changed dramatically in the last week... pantsonfire Apr 2016 #29

Greatest upset in 30 years Renew Deal Apr 2016 #32