2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Reports from the ground in CA [View all]Corporate666
(587 posts)I don't understand why Bernie supporters refuse to acknowledge this simple truth.
Winning 1 state with 500 delegates by 10% is more important than winning 10 states with 20 delegates each by 10%.
~380 delegates are up for contention on Tuesday, 25% of the remaining total. 70% of what's left after that is made up solely by California and NJ.
The primaries in between are virtually irrelevant, and while Bernie will win some, so will Clinton. Even if Bernie wins them by large margins, it won't make even close to a big enough dent in her lead to make the race decided in California.
And how do you figure my predictions for Tuesday are premature? There is polling in 3 out of the 5 states. He is down by double digits in 2 of those states, and 9% in the third. The other 2 that have no polling only have 45 delegates, whereas the other 3 have ~340 delegates. Voting is in 2 days, so it's not like Bernie has much opportunity to campaign and capture Clinton supporters.
What information do you have about Tuesday that counters the above facts and makes predictions premature?