2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Will the Democratic Party unify under Hillary or split in two [View all]sacto95834
(393 posts)I totally agree with Sheila. I think many of the HRC supporters don't/won't see the fracture in the Democratic Party going on today. Like many elections prior, they view this primary as no different; that in the end the party will reunite behind the candidate.
I don't think this is the case. The party has been fracturing for a long time. I think the fracturing was most apparent with the nomination of Bill Clinton and the "Third Way" path to victory. Since his nomination, the party has continued to follow this mode. The fracture has just widened.
I had great hope with the nomination of Obama as he seemed to heal the fracture. I think it had more to do with his personality and who he was rather than the what he stood for. In the 2008 election, I thought policy wise he and HRC were clones. Obama was just more charismatic and inspiring.
Which brings us to 2016. Whatever you think of HRC, I think we can agree she is a polarizing candidate. When she first came to the national attention, she was outspoken and certainly had her own opinions. She was very different from all the other wives of presidential candidates we had seen. Or at least I had seen. She was refreshing.
HRC however isn't a natural politician. She's rather stiff and doesn't seem at ease in a crowd; unlike her charming husband, who is very good with people and can work a crowd with skill and grace.
The electorate of 2016 is also very different from the 1990s when the 3rd Way Democratic path was developed. It is now the age of the Internet when information is a few keystrokes away. Past positions and statements can be researched almost instantaneous. It is also the coming of age of the Millennials. The last large voting block, the Boomers are dying off, and the Millennials are making their voice heard. Minority voters are also making their voices heard. It seems a place at the table is not enough, they want leadership.
It is in this mix that Bernie Sanders stepped forward to seek the nomination of the Democratic Party. I don't think anyone at the DNC or the electorate at large took him very seriously at first. Unless you follow politics like this board does, nobody heard of him - a liberal from Vermont, with almost no $. But what he does have is a platform that resonated with the ideals of the Millennials and Occupy Wall Street movement. His messaging also plays perfectly with this demographic. Bernie always speaks of "we." "We can do this. This isn't about me, it's about us." Contrast this with the messaging from the HRC campaign which is more traditional, "I will do...; or I stand for..."
So here we are in 2016. The fracture in the party growing wider. HRC v. Bernie. Can the party be healed? I don't know. I have less optimism if HRC is nominated. She isn't that kind of politician and she doesn't have the natural gifts one would need to do this. I think if she tries, it will look stilted. She isn't a touchy-feely candidate. Never has been.
If we were nominating someone else, maybe. In this campaign so far there isn't any outreach from the HRC people to the Bernie supporters. But even if it is coming, it would just be temporary. I think ultimately the party will have to split.
The Democratic Party used to stand for the common man - the laborer, the middle class, the poor. After loosing so many presidential elections in the 80s, the Democrats developed the 3rd way path - which courted business interests. Policy positions shifted to benefit big business over the interests of the "common man." How else can one explain the "reform" of the banking rules or the trade agreements? Thus began the fracturing of the party. Just look at the money being accepted by Democratic candidates. If you believe that such large contributions have no strings, I have a ocean view land to sell you in Iowa. Donations gets you access and opportunity to persuade candidates who are only human.
I love presidential elections and have observed and studied them to gain insight on how their messaging affects voter behavior. I am also a Democrat who has voted in every election since 1980 - what a depressing night that was. It saddens me that the Democrats will likely split into two or more parties. I've always liked the idea of the "big tent." That despite differences, at the core we all believe in the same ideals. The details may be different. I don't think that is so anymore. We can all scream and cry and accuse the "other side" of the party for the problem. Why can't they see my point of view? But what good would that do. I think it is time for the divorce. From there, we can heal and even work together in the future.
I think the same will happen to the Republicans. It seems with the apparent nomination of HRC and Trump the parties will have to finally confront the fractures within them. I find the Republican party even more interesting to study. But that is another story.