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Response to Cal33 (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 02:19 PM

72. Cal33—Media. Closed Primaries. 45–64 and 65+ outweighing 17–29 and 30–44 turnout size of the vote.

 

Cal33,

Right now the pledged delegates count gives Hillary Clinton 54 percent to Bernie Sanders having 45 percent of the vote. (Effective 05.10.2016 @ 03:00 p.m. ET.)

I see three factors helping to explain:

• Media: Deliverate lack of coverage for Bernie Sanders. Intentional bias from broadcast and cable networks which have reported a folding in of superdelegate numbers—which do not account before all primaries’ voters have their say before us voters (no matter any arrangements)—and reporting them without indicating the difference. (Or, in some cases, doing so in fine print.) The purpose has been to get less informed people to think the primaries are essentially done.

• Closed Primaries: Having a mix of states which are open and closed primaries. Some would say they should all be uniform. Well, given that tax payers fund these elections, they should all be open. (I say this no matter how many political parties.)

• 45–64 and 65+ voters have turned out a 3-to-2 advantage over 17–29 and 30–44 voters in these 2016 Democratic presidential primaries. In general elections, and as pairs, they are 50/50. (The in-between groups, in general elections, are the ones which are usually closer to that 3-to-2 advantage.) So, when doing some numbers crunching, this explains why Hillary Clinton eked out small victories in states like Illinois and Missouri. (Add Nevada and especially Iowa to that. I’d have to do even more numbers crunching to figure out which additional states might have otherwise tipped.)

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