2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Polls: Trump Closing In On Hillary [View all]jzodda
(2,124 posts)This is what Nate tweeted yesterday:
"For f--k's sake, America. You're going to make go on a rant about general election polls -- in May?" the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight wrote as part of a tweetstorm on Tuesday.
Silver said Clinton has an about 6 percent lead over Trump nationally, but cautioned: "It's early. Trump could win. Also, he could lose in a landslide." He added that Trump's presumptive nomination and Clinton's ongoing battle with Bernie Sanders could be having an effect "We'll know more in June."
The statistician said he wouldn't have polls of each state for "a few months."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/nate-silver-trump-clinton-polls-223015#ixzz48N1yTkh3
I never pay attention to these early polls. In 1980 Carter had a 10 point lead at this point. In 1988 Dukakis was polling well in the spring. In 2000 they had GW winning by 10+ points and he lost the vote.
As far as bias its an interesting video. thanks for the link. My own take is that this is all media driven. They need a horse race and they will find any way to make sure it exists.