2016 Postmortem

TwilightZone

(25,418 posts)

64. Not a problem.

Mon May 16, 2016, 04:44 PM

May 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html

Trump could gain 5% in every state in the country and still lose.

You can keep moving the goalposts, but the end result doesn't change. If you're going to put full faith in polls six months before an election (which I don't, because history proves that it's a losing proposition), from an electoral standpoint, either of our candidates is a lock as it stands.

The electoral numbers - the only ones that matter in the end - are very similar, and the much-vaunted Sanders edge with independents simply doesn't exist, partly because a lot of people simply don't understand who independents really are.

That assumes that nothing changes in the next six months. It ignores that Sanders has yet to be vetted to any meaningful extent by the GOP, for example, presumably because they're hoping he pulls this off.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

115 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Hillary Clinton will lose in the General Election [View all] Seeinghope May 2016 OP

The Republicans backed McCain. yallerdawg May 2016 #1

And ours to lose Ohioblue22 May 2016 #3

Independents didn't back them. And they won't back Hillary. BillZBubb May 2016 #4

Their feelings and personal needs "trump" the existence of the human race, i know Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #6

You got that right. GreatGazoo May 2016 #44

Obama won without independents or white males. JaneyVee May 2016 #96

Obama wasn't Obama when he ran MariaThinks May 2016 #109

WRONG! BillZBubb May 2016 #110

We can fall into lock step behind Hillary! BillZBubb May 2016 #2

We are not sheep. When we goose step behind Hillary and ignore her war mongering, her IWAV, sucking GoneFishin May 2016 #54

They get seats puffy socks May 2016 #78

NO impeachment, and either you are working day and night against a Drumpf presidency Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #5

Plus the media backs Trump chknltl May 2016 #7

You mean like "The Donald Trump Show Starring Rachel Maddow" corkhead May 2016 #32

Unless Trump throws it. Either way we are in the soup. Deep soup. yourpaljoey May 2016 #8

The only way she'll win is with the help of not insane republicans, B Calm May 2016 #9

I think that will be her strategy. An anti-Trump CanadaexPat May 2016 #103

Republican VP, Debbie Wasserman Shultz? B Calm May 2016 #105

Yes, maybe a super-DINO. But probably a Repub. CanadaexPat May 2016 #107

I've thought for years that the Republicans would vote for Adolf Hitler if he ran as a Republican Fozzledick May 2016 #10

People of color have got this. We're gonna underthematrix May 2016 #11

Then you haven't been listening to both candidates closely or you won't hear both candidates closely Seeinghope May 2016 #14

I have been READING about both candidates. I just underthematrix May 2016 #49

Not so simple. It is more like choosing to take choosing to have terminal cancer or take poison Seeinghope May 2016 #92

LOL! No one is ever going to reach the President Obama standard. Never. underthematrix May 2016 #93

Have you actually read the contract for her speeches with Goldman Sachs and all of the other Wall Seeinghope May 2016 #97

You reside in a universe I can't penetrate with facts and reason. underthematrix May 2016 #99

You miss the part where he says "we". This will take his expertise of the system and the power Seeinghope May 2016 #100

I want HRC networking on WALL STREET underthematrix May 2016 #101

Do you actually want me to do your work for you? Seeinghope May 2016 #104

Really?......what planet are you living on. yourout May 2016 #33

You have to write more because that doesn't tell me anything underthematrix May 2016 #50

"There's very little daylight between Trump and Bernie supporters..." yourout May 2016 #63

The commonality Bernie and Trump supporters seem to underthematrix May 2016 #67

"violence as a means of expressing their anger.." you just keep digging. yourout May 2016 #68

This my opinion based on what I've read. underthematrix May 2016 #69

This guy seems pretty angry. Loudestlib May 2016 #83

Is it his color that makes you think that because there's actually research on that underthematrix May 2016 #84

OMG!! They finally found one Hillary supporter that has acted half as stupidly as the BB's Number23 May 2016 #85

. Loudestlib May 2016 #88

Half is still better than whole. And you guys have cornered the WHOLE market on that for a generatio Number23 May 2016 #94

I don't believe the Bernie femal supporter. Wendell had a witness and underthematrix May 2016 #89

I witnessed it. He did nothing wrong jack_krass May 2016 #106

I posted it because he's a Hillary support and it just happened. Loudestlib May 2016 #87

Interesting article. underthematrix May 2016 #90

Let me guess, those are online surveys? And Lord knows Sanders supporters are not laughably Number23 May 2016 #95

I think in your own ingenious way, you're implying that Bernie supporters jack_krass May 2016 #112

RE your profile, I see you haven't stopped offending Bernie supporters corkhead May 2016 #38

I think Bernie supporters are angry. I think anything that doesn't lead to their underthematrix May 2016 #51

Do you know why they're called 'minorities'? Marr May 2016 #76

LOL! underthematrix May 2016 #82

Republicans are easy to predict... Mike Nelson May 2016 #12

Trump will need to win 65% ???, 66% ??? 67% ??? of the white vote DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #13

Willard got 60 percent in 2012 CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #15

Aw. And Mittens was a sterling candidate compared to Trump. auntpurl May 2016 #17

Couldn't agree more with your last senstence CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #19

How about talking about things with an open mind instead of just throwing accusations? Seeinghope May 2016 #23

Yeah, ok. auntpurl May 2016 #25

Since you admittedly missed the point, I wanted to know how, why the Republicans could so easily Seeinghope May 2016 #47

You mean with the same kind leftynyc May 2016 #37

You're assuming that Hillary will do as well as Obama. Dawgs May 2016 #29

Thanks Nostradamus CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #31

"Still got smoked" brings Obama's votes into it. Dawgs May 2016 #34

"You failed again" CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #39

Sorry. Dawgs May 2016 #46

You only think that because Trump's supporters are so loud, like... scscholar May 2016 #81

We can only hope. Seeinghope May 2016 #16

That is an incredibly high burden. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #18

He can't reach that because there's just too much stuff out there ON TAPE underthematrix May 2016 #53

This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel May 2016 #20

If she cheats so much, isn't she guaranteed a win? KingFlorez May 2016 #21

You may be right. B Calm May 2016 #22

I have though about that...really...but Bernie didn't publicly go after her whereas Trump will Seeinghope May 2016 #26

Practice makes Perfect bahrbearian May 2016 #27

She will lose. Lets talk impeachment. This is just getting to good. NCTraveler May 2016 #24

There is this magic word called "If". Look it up If you don't understand what it means Seeinghope May 2016 #28

I understand if better than you think I do. NCTraveler May 2016 #30

THen there's the October Surprise Ferd Berfel May 2016 #35

Oh,, I thought you were going to say something about the FBI and her e-mails. Seeinghope May 2016 #52

and if there's any way in earth that they can add that - they will. Ferd Berfel May 2016 #65

DNC doesn't care about democracy. bunchofpenguins May 2016 #36

I'll tell you how they expect it. Their opponent is Trump. They jwirr May 2016 #48

You sound about like me. I am so over the games that they play and treating us like sheep to Seeinghope May 2016 #111

I am also older and the more I become involved the more jwirr May 2016 #113

Will she blame Sanders for winning too many primary votes or Jill Stein for winning too many general Attorney in Texas May 2016 #40

I'm sure she's terrified of Jill Stein and her 0.3% draw. TwilightZone May 2016 #42

OK - so we agree there will be no scapegoating Jill Stein for the Trump presidency (if we blow this) Attorney in Texas May 2016 #45

if clinton pulls this off Ferd Berfel May 2016 #72

If Trump loses Latinos 80/20, blacks 90/10 and women 55/45 (or worse) TwilightZone May 2016 #41

And yet a number of polls show her behind trump? BillZBubb May 2016 #55

Head-to-head polls are meaningless. We don't vote based on popular vote. TwilightZone May 2016 #56

Swing state polls. BillZBubb May 2016 #57

Not a problem. TwilightZone May 2016 #64

I do know that the candidate does not win by the popular vote. Look at Gore. Seeinghope May 2016 #98

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #60

Voting machines will be rigged for Hillary Dems to Win May 2016 #43

YOU are so not telling the truth. trueblue2007 May 2016 #58

Too bad we can make a wager on your prediction...id be glad to beachbumbob May 2016 #59

Republicans always fall in line Txbluedog May 2016 #61

you really should try to hide your glee DrDan May 2016 #62

Seriously. Fingers crossed! auntpurl May 2016 #70

.+100 JoePhilly May 2016 #114

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #66

Nothing like Dems giving Trump a leg up on a Dem Board. Sheepshank May 2016 #71

As you say, either way we are screwed. EndElectoral May 2016 #73

PredictWise has the Republican nominee having a 29% chance to win Il_Coniglietto May 2016 #74

I thought that discouraging Democratic turnout was against this site's rules YoungDemCA May 2016 #75

She must be counting on some crooked party hacks changing more rules for her. Marr May 2016 #77

Trying to predict the outcome jamese777 May 2016 #79

Seeinghope—No matter what happens in November, I will live. CobaltBlue May 2016 #80

chill out friend. The Trumpster is goin in the Dumpster BootinUp May 2016 #86

I don't like the idea of fascism entering the WH. sadoldgirl May 2016 #91

Good for you The_Casual_Observer May 2016 #102

don't panic! 0rganism May 2016 #108

When huge numbers of people are motivated to vote, Democrats win. Millenials, women, minorities all applegrove May 2016 #115