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Response to 99th_Monkey (Reply #16)

Sun May 22, 2016, 11:31 AM

94. There are no concrete set of swing states.

 

It depends on the type of presidential year we have.

In 2008, a Democratic presidential pickup year, the swing states were ones in the 2004 Republican column for President Bush. And it was no surprise—incumbent Republican president George W. Bush was so severely unpopular that any nominee from that party (not just John McCain) was going to end up playing for second.

In 2012, resulting in re-election for an incumbent Democratic president, swing states were a mix of states which were 2008 Republican and 2008 Democratic—but mostly the latter because, going against common historical trend, President Obama underperformed 2012 vs. 2008. (In 2008, he won nationally by +07.26 percentage points and with 28 states plus Nebraska #02 and District of Columbia with 365 electoral votes. In 2012, he was re-elected with +03.86 percentage points and District of Columbia with 332 electoral votes.)

I notice that, with having looked at the past presidential elections of 1789–2012, no one given presidential election has resulted in a freeze—that the same percentage-points margin held, compared to the previous election cycle, and we ended up with exactly the same map. In fact, there has never been one presidential election’s electoral map exactly repeated later. (Close connections between Republicans Herbert Hoover, in 1928, and Dwight Eisenhower, in 1952 and 1956, were interesting…but there were some differences in carried states.)

2016 is not going to duplicate 2012. If the likely nominee from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, is going to win a third consecutive election for her party, her support—compared to a 2012 Barack Obama—will either increase or decrease.

This would bring a change to the 2016 map (even if that change is modest). Decreased party support, from just a +03.86 margin, makes this election favorable to the effective nominee of the Republican Party, Donald Trump. That would mean he would retain all 24 states, with 206 electoral votes, which carried for the losing 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, and put into play bellwether states which would flip to Trump if he ends up winning: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia—along with Iowa. And after that would come New Hampshire and others. If Hillary Clinton wins this election with significant increased support, that would take all 2012 states for a re-elected Democratic president Barack Obama and flip from the 2012 Republican column the likes of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, and possibly more.

This all depends on the numbers in the national shift—2012 to 2016—and going in which party’s direction. This should be a key issue for those who are genuinely concerned with Democratic primaries—especially with regard for hypothetical, general-election matchups for both nationwide and state after state.

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99th_Monkey May 2016 OP
NCTraveler May 2016 #1
onenote May 2016 #2
Cali_Democrat May 2016 #7
joshcryer May 2016 #24
Bernin4U May 2016 #68
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floriduck May 2016 #89
LineLineLineReply There are no concrete set of swing states.
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