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2016 Postmortem

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)

8. It's an outlier by definition

Reply to CrowCityDem (Reply #7)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:52 AM

May 2016

No other poll showed anything close to that. That doesn't even necessarily mean it's wrong, it just means that the chances of that one being the result vs. all the other showing a much different result is quite low.

Now, if newer polls start to come in showing a close result, then we can conclude that the race has tightened.

When we have a poll showing Bernie winning by 25, then we'll have something important to talk about.

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May 26, Poll: Clinton, Sanders neck-and-neck in California. [View all] imagine2015 May 2016 OP

And this poll would not include the effect of the OIG report... lagomorph777 May 2016 #1

Nope it sure doesn't reflect that audit. It was like an earthquake yesterday. NWCorona May 2016 #2

The numbers make no sense: CrowCityDem May 2016 #3

I demand that you set your hair on fire firebrand80 May 2016 #6

I fully expect it's an outlier. I just think we should make sure we hear more than the top-line. CrowCityDem May 2016 #7

It's an outlier by definition firebrand80 May 2016 #8

Quick, find me a for-profit robocall polling outfit JackRiddler May 2016 #4

A win for Bernie in CA does nothing firebrand80 May 2016 #5

Is that a serious comment? Oh! You're just joking. Right? imagine2015 May 2016 #9

I'm quite serious firebrand80 May 2016 #10

Even if true though, "neck and neck" would be ~15-18 % points under his target. Tarc May 2016 #11