2016 Postmortem

TwilightZone

(25,451 posts)

22. That poll has some obvious math errors.

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:30 PM

May 2016

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

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Highlight:

Neck-and-Neck in California as Sanders Virtually Erases 50-Point Deficit [View all] Ferd Berfel May 2016 OP

Yes! Bernie can Win California and the Nomination!!!!!!!! amborin May 2016 #1

No he CAN'T! bravenak May 2016 #5

define "can" Corporate666 May 2016 #26

lol nt BootinUp May 2016 #33

The race will be called for Hillary the secong the polls close bravenak May 2016 #2

If he wins, that points to serious weakness in the general election cali May 2016 #25

She beat Obama in CA last time, was Obama weak in the GE? bravenak May 2016 #27

+1 onenote May 2016 #40

You do realize that other polls yesterday had Hillary up by significant numbers, don't you? tonyt53 May 2016 #3

That explains the trolls' efforts to say "it's over" every 5 minutes. arcane1 May 2016 #4

Yes it does - You WIN! Ferd Berfel May 2016 #6

They are desperate and it is obvious nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #9

"not supposed to"???? Corporate666 May 2016 #28

You should go have that argument with DWS nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #30

Yes, it does. They live in fear of losing California RufusTFirefly May 2016 #10

CA will be fun, in an evil way nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #31

Bernie!! AzDar May 2016 #7

Even if Sanders were to win CA LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #8

It Ain't over, till it's over Ferd Berfel May 2016 #11

Non-answer LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #15

California is 46% non-white KingFlorez May 2016 #12

Here is a new poll. hrmjustin May 2016 #13

Lol, that Poll is old news from Monday. The op just told you about the latest poll gravityspy May 2016 #16

Taken in the last few days. hrmjustin May 2016 #18

The SurveyUSA poll is newer data. TwilightZone May 2016 #23

Clinton up 6 with Whites, 9 with Latinos, and only up 2 in the state? The internals don't compute. CrowCityDem May 2016 #14

There are other breakdowns and demographics in California than just those two n/t arcane1 May 2016 #17

80% of CA is white and Latino. There isn't enough left in the other 20% to get to +2. TwilightZone May 2016 #24

Those groups, along with AAs, make up nearly 90% of the state. CrowCityDem May 2016 #29

The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points. MADem May 2016 #19

Plus the polling sample is.. LenaBaby61 May 2016 #34

It's click bait, and a great "It Could Happen" lead-in for a 24 hour news station. nt MADem May 2016 #36

He will win California UNLESS... dana_b May 2016 #20

Please, by all means .... LenaBaby61 May 2016 #32

How is getting to 44% "erases 50-Point Deficit" scscholar May 2016 #21

I assume it's math. beardown May 2016 #37

So you're counting every vote who switches, twice scscholar May 2016 #38

That poll has some obvious math errors. TwilightZone May 2016 #22

I Still Predict Hillary +10 to 15 nt. BootinUp May 2016 #35

Btw - NPP voters need to ask for a Democratic ballot dana_b May 2016 #39