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We May Just Be This Screwed: Donald Trump Has an Easier Path to Victory Than You Think [View all]
By Musa Al-Gharbi / Salon May 30, 2016
As the 2016 presidential primaries got underway, there seemed to be several incontrovertible truths: Hillary Clinton’s nomination was inevitable, and Donald Trump stood no chance. Yet, here we are six months before the election, and Trump has seized the Republican nomination while Clinton is still working to box out Bernie Sanders’ insurgency (without losing his voters, who it turns out, may peel off after all).
Nonetheless, the prevailing narrative is that while there is now a chance that Trump could actually win in November, it’s basically Hillary Clinton’s election to lose. Pundits focus on “fundamentals,” like Hillary’s superior fundraising, analytics, or ground game; however, these haven’t proven terribly predictive this cycle. And by focusing on conventional elements, analysts seem to be overlooking novel dynamics which are likely more important—specifically, the public’s persistent and negative perception of Hillary Clinton, the incumbency handicap, and a phenomenon I call “negative intersectionality.”
Nonetheless, the prevailing narrative is that while there is now a chance that Trump could actually win in November, it’s basically Hillary Clinton’s election to lose. Pundits focus on “fundamentals,” like Hillary’s superior fundraising, analytics, or ground game; however, these haven’t proven terribly predictive this cycle. And by focusing on conventional elements, analysts seem to be overlooking novel dynamics which are likely more important—specifically, the public’s persistent and negative perception of Hillary Clinton, the incumbency handicap, and a phenomenon I call “negative intersectionality.”
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In short, contrary to prevailing narratives, the deck seems to be stacked against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Of course, there’s always the hope that Trump could implode. But so far he has demonstrated an amazing ability to lean into gaffes and controversies, and to control the terms of debate. And with his primary buttoned up, Trump is softening and moderating his “suggestions” for the general electorate—and again, he is empowered to make radical shifts in a way his opponent is not.
More broadly, it would be a strategic blunder for Clinton to make her campaign a referendum on Trump: negative partisanship elections tend to favor Republicans. This is because Democrats are heavily dependent on high turnout from irregular voters in order to win national contests. However, when these voters are asked to choose between the “lesser of two evils,” they tend to just stay home. If this happens in November, Clinton loses.
More broadly, it would be a strategic blunder for Clinton to make her campaign a referendum on Trump: negative partisanship elections tend to favor Republicans. This is because Democrats are heavily dependent on high turnout from irregular voters in order to win national contests. However, when these voters are asked to choose between the “lesser of two evils,” they tend to just stay home. If this happens in November, Clinton loses.
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http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/we-may-just-be-screwed-donald-trump-has-easier-path-victory-you-think
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