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2016 Postmortem

CobaltBlue

(1,122 posts)

21. Proper context is this…

Reply to DanTex (Reply #2)

Sun Jul 3, 2016, 12:40 PM

Jul 2016

If Donald Trump is winning a Republican pickup of the presidency, the first states he carries are all 24 which voted for Mitt Romney in 2012.

They are worth 206 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump fails to hold any state which carried for Mitt Romney…it's because the voters are not flipping the White House to the Republicans and Donald Trump.

If Hillary Clinton wins this presidential election, making it a third consecutive cycle won by the Democratic Party, and she outperforms nationally how Barack Obama (by +3.86) fared nationwide in 2012, the first state to get flipped would be North Carolina.

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32 replies

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Battleground bloodbath: Clinton leads Trump in 7 swing states [View all] BlueStateLib Jun 2016 OP

tRumpis counting on the GOP floor to get him to the election with little cost, it will but its only uponit7771 Jun 2016 #1

I think if she wins any one of FL, VA, or NC, she's basically got it. DanTex Jun 2016 #2

Proper context is this… CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #21

These polls are f---d up. I just heard a couple hours ago that polls have doc03 Jun 2016 #3

Go to 538.com woolldog Jun 2016 #5

Have to write it out: fivethirtyeight.com mjjoe Jul 2016 #14

Thanks. woolldog Jul 2016 #15

More informative is the ratings of the other polls by 838 creoledna Jul 2016 #31

Ok, worry wart, lets take a look Doctor Jack Jul 2016 #6

but but but..... getagrip_already Jul 2016 #23

This poll was conducted June 10 to June 22 Cosmocat Jul 2016 #18

I believe that margin is even wider in IA now. Time to start working on "soft" states too Maru Kitteh Jun 2016 #4

She can win Michigan easily with a policy to not poison children. tclambert Jul 2016 #7

+8? DownriverDem Jul 2016 #9

And I think that proves SCantiGOP Jul 2016 #10

Yea Michigan! DownriverDem Jul 2016 #8

Michigan is… CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #24

Maybe we can get rid of our moran guv in NC and help turn the Senate blue. yardwork Jul 2016 #11

yardwork—It may very well happen. CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #28

I'm feeling very hopeful. We have to GOTV. yardwork Jul 2016 #29

No way is Hillary up 10 points in NC. In her dreams. mnhtnbb Jul 2016 #12

Huge problem with these polls. Trump is not the nominee yet. Coyotl Jul 2016 #13

The biggest problem with this poll - it was from June 10 to June 22 Cosmocat Jul 2016 #17

Expect all the major networks to start kicking in the HRC negatives ffr Jul 2016 #16

Why get all excited? SmittynMo Jul 2016 #19

maybe, but i'd rather be ... getagrip_already Jul 2016 #25

The context is excellent CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #20

The way thing are going, Indiana could become a swing state Brother Buzz Jul 2016 #22

Brother Buzz—Indiana is very close to Missouri CobaltBlue Jul 2016 #30

Anything less than a landslide for Hillary will be a letdown for me. oasis Jul 2016 #26

just remember.... getagrip_already Jul 2016 #27

K & R Scurrilous Jul 2016 #32