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2016 Postmortem

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

8. Let's be fair to Nate. His model is more sensitive to some kinds of swings than others.

Reply to CrowCityDem (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:59 AM

Jul 2016

Frankly I think he overfits his models a bit. Also, he uses mean values in his polls, which are more sensitive to outliers. Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium uses a median-based approach instead which tends to disregard outliers.

But Nate isn't cheating. He is just reporting that outcomes his models predict.

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Poll Averages, people. It's the opposite of DEMOCRATIC PANIC!!! [View all] Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 OP

Of course he was going to get SOME bounce. But he's losing, and Nate is making up his lead. CrowCityDem Jul 2016 #1

Let's be fair to Nate. His model is more sensitive to some kinds of swings than others. Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #8

I wasn't specifically referring to today's snapshot... CrowCityDem Jul 2016 #10

The one the media is pushing this morning is the CNN poll which shows a 4 point trump lead. What is still_one Jul 2016 #2

it's pointless to complain about the refs Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #3

I agree still_one Jul 2016 #4

There's ALWAYS going to be a post-convention bounce. calimary Jul 2016 #5

This is Trump's high water mark. He'd be more than doomed if trailing or even tied geek tragedy Jul 2016 #6

I still expect him to lead for a bit Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #9

Surprised it isn't more. When you consider places like TYT Thrill Jul 2016 #7

Trump's numbers and favorably when up while Clinton's remained about the same. RAFisher Jul 2016 #11