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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Poll Averages, people. I... » Reply #9

Response to geek tragedy (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:06 PM

9. I still expect him to lead for a bit

Although I cannot prove it, I do believe that some media orgs poll and repoll until they get a sample that fits their narrative?

Why do I believe that? Because the changes in direction of leads in polls are too often correlated more than they should be assuming even random processes with some level of drift. One of these days I'll have enough data to demonstrate this.

But not today, sadly. So my gut says expect a Trump lead because the narrative demands it and some polling outfits are willing to keep polling until the result is what they expect.

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