2016 Postmortem

frazzled

(18,402 posts)

15. Chill

Thu Jul 28, 2016, 09:59 AM

Jul 2016

I caught (in media res) a conversation from the Convention floor that Charlie Rose did with Jim Messina (Obama's former campaign manager) last night. Rose was asking him, "so why is Donald Trump doing so well, given all the negatives"? Messina explained that at this point in every campaign cycle--the conventions and just after--there is automatically a 45-45 tie in the polls. Democrats and Republicans divide into camps, at least for the time being. It's that other 10%, he explained, and then went on to very confidently state that this race will NOT be close in the end. I'm not explaining the details well (it was very late!), so if and when a video clip comes up, I'll try to grab it for everyone.

This was not just happy talk from a Democratic operative. It was very convincing.

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The latest Rasmussen Poll : Clinton 43% Trump 42% [View all] still_one Jul 2016 OP

not a good sign for Trumpistan nt geek tragedy Jul 2016 #1

I sure hope so geek still_one Jul 2016 #9

But...but...Trump has the "silent majority" supporting him! Lmfao. anneboleyn Jul 2016 #31

Yeah, usually a 3-5% right shift in Rasmussen... Wounded Bear Jul 2016 #2

Yes, rasmussen skews repubs.. no matter how far ahead we Cha Jul 2016 #3

Absolutely Cha! CajunBlazer Jul 2016 #5

They're not doing their repub buddies any favors.. romney was shocked he Cha Jul 2016 #8

I guess I'm a saddist, I thought that was fun CajunBlazer Jul 2016 #11

It was delish! Cha Jul 2016 #17

You got that right Cha still_one Jul 2016 #10

Trump's going down workinclasszero Jul 2016 #4

Rasmussen Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2016 #6

Excellent Johnny2X2X Jul 2016 #7

YEP Cosmocat Jul 2016 #14

It has been an amazing Convention still_one Jul 2016 #16

42% trump I would like to see a poll broken down by income, gender and race. You can see states Person 2713 Jul 2016 #12

That means it's probably Clinton +10 NewJeffCT Jul 2016 #13

Their final poll in 2012 was Romney +1. Ace Rothstein Jul 2016 #21

and Obama won NewJeffCT Jul 2016 #23

Correct, 3.9%. Ace Rothstein Jul 2016 #24

thats usually within the MoE ericson00 Jul 2016 #25

Chill frazzled Jul 2016 #15

This is the only poll that has Obama disapproval higher than approval democrattotheend Jul 2016 #18

They had Trump +7 on the 14th. Ace Rothstein Jul 2016 #19

You can add at least 5 to that Rasmussen, Repub biased, poll. MoonRiver Jul 2016 #20

Poll was conducted 7/26-7/27. Questions if Trump got a bump at all. RAFisher Jul 2016 #22

This show a 2 point swing to Hillary since the Rasmussen Poll on July 21 awake Jul 2016 #26

so, basically they are saying NewJeffCT Jul 2016 #27

It's a Rasmussen poll. That means Hillary is up 9 Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #28

Hillary will win the election-it isn't going to be close. jalan48 Jul 2016 #29

Rasmussen??? DemonGoddess Jul 2016 #30

stil fucked up that amerikanz are THAT swayed by teevee BS. pansypoo53219 Jul 2016 #32

If Ras has Trump +1, given how bad they lean right and are so often wrong apnu Jul 2016 #33