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CobaltBlue

(1,122 posts)
10. It is helpful!
Sat Aug 13, 2016, 09:20 PM
Aug 2016

The estimated margins, by which Hillary Clinton would need to win the U.S. Popular Vote, to flip and carry much-desired states (most especially and deliciously with Texas) are a helpful guide.

I would like to see, for 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, an electoral-vote score that reaches what neither Bill Clinton or Barack Obama achieved—400.

The four winning Republican presidential elections of the 1970s and 1980s were never under the 400 range in part because the map was transitioning. California, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey—to name four double-digit populous states—carried Republican every time, including for the unseated Gerald Ford in 1976, before eventually flipping (and now regularly carrying) in the Democratic column beginning in 1992 (for Bill Clinton).

We are overdue. The historical percentage of states carried by presidential winners is between 34 and 35. Democratic presidential nominees, since 1992, have averaged 12 electoral votes per carried state. (Carriage of 33 states would do it.) I would like to see Hillary Clinton get this back on track. And, to be blunt, Donald Trump is unworthy of carrying any more than 10 states. (And, with that, I am being generous. I am thinking of a variation on the winning maps of a 1950s Dwight Eisenhower and a 1964 Lyndon Johnson.)

We still have plenty more time.

Chris Matthews yesterday was talking about "big losses" question everything Aug 2016 #1
The voters need to say to Trump... liberal N proud Aug 2016 #3
He's so fired. StrictlyRockers Aug 2016 #12
I love the 16 point map TexasTowelie Aug 2016 #2
I love it, too! StrictlyRockers Aug 2016 #5
i like scenario 3.nt. drray23 Aug 2016 #4
I just **** Warren DeMontague Aug 2016 #6
#ElectionPorn StrictlyRockers Aug 2016 #7
its this bad............ MFM008 Aug 2016 #8
Thanks a lot there's an image I could have done without. jcgoldie Aug 2016 #9
I know MFM008 Aug 2016 #11
It is helpful! CobaltBlue Aug 2016 #10
This is wonderful stuff, but we need to act as if it won't happen. Complacency is failure. ancianita Aug 2016 #13
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Nate Silver of 538.com sp...»Reply #10