Two Presidential election experts predict 2016 is not a easy call

[whatthehey]

3. Based on precedents like Trump?

The trouble is there are none. The only quantitative approach to this one is via well designed polls. These precedent-based semi-quantitative analyses assume that the recent past is like the near future, but despite people pointing to folks like Reagan and GWB as exemplars, two governors of large states with decades of political experience behind them, running orthodox campaigns stocked with political professionals, are not ciphers for a barely coherent reality show human version of Triumph the Insult Dog and a campaign run by propagandists who speak only to their base with the help of moronic juvenile neophytes and the ground game of a badminton league.