The House Is Back in Play [View all]

[Coyotl]

With a month to go, this is possible.

The House Is Back in Play
By steve schear Oct 05, 2016 · 4:22 PM PDT

Back in August, when Hillary was riding high, Nancy Pelosi was urging progressive leaders to help take the House for the Dems. Those discussions receded when Trump crept closer before his debate debacle. Now Hillary is well up again and the House is ripe to be taken.

Statistical mavens have determined that if Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, the Dems would have a good chance to take the House. Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Skelley has projected that with a 5 point margin, Clinton would win in 39 districts currently held by Republicans, creating a great opportunity for the Dems to win the 30 seats they need for a majority. Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster, has calculated that if Trump gets less than 45% in a congressional district, the Republican House candidate is likely to lose.

According to Nate Silver’s analysis of current polling, Hillary is up by 4.5 points nationally and Trump is projected to win only 43.6% of the popular vote. If Hillary maintains or increases her lead, the Dems have a good statistical chance of taking the House.

But we won’t take the House by just riding on Hillary’s coattails. The impact of national voting is too diffuse. The plutocrats recognized early this summer that their control of the House was at risk, so they are pouring millions of dollars into the swing district races. ..............

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