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2016 Postmortem

In reply to the discussion: The House Is Back in Play [View all]

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
28. I don't think the average pop vote correlation is that strong though
Thu Oct 6, 2016, 10:46 AM
Oct 2016

Maybe it was 20 years ago, but gerrymandering has left us with a trivial number of seats which might be really competitive. About the best hope I have for the House is that rabid Trump fans as opposed to doctrinaire Republicans either ignore down-tickets or remember Trump's earlier denigration of the party. That coupled with his depressing the vote among the remaining Rockefeller Repiblicans might help us a bit, but on the other side all those R-leaning suburban women put off by Trump and wanting to see a female POTUS may very well keep to their R ways in House races. Pickup some seats? Surely. A majority? Just can't see the numbers there I'm afraid.

I will be very happy indeed to be proven wrong if that happens, natch.

The House Is Back in Play [View all] Coyotl Oct 2016 OP
Its the only way to defeat the Republican grip that is hell bent on destroying our US Constitution. misterhighwasted Oct 2016 #1
Win the House and State Legislatures to kill gerrymandering: Permanent Independent Commissions. nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #7
This election really is the final battle. It is so critical. misterhighwasted Oct 2016 #8
Don't think it's quite the final battle, Mr. :) We'd have to live Hortensis Oct 2016 #25
Oh Lord could we stop the barbarians this year? workinclasszero Oct 2016 #19
HRC +5-6 and above 50 percent Dawson Leery Oct 2016 #2
OMG It would be delightful watching them lose all their dough. Go Hillary Go! lonestarnot Oct 2016 #3
KNR Lucinda Oct 2016 #4
Si Se Puede! Maru Kitteh Oct 2016 #5
Trump's scaring away the few remaining sane R's and wiping out the downballot. Snarkoleptic Oct 2016 #6
Trump/Pence are today's personification of Republican obstructionism and the Teahistas. Coyotl Oct 2016 #11
Wouldn't it be fantastic to have the House again? ailsagirl Oct 2016 #9
Consider how horribly things went after they took the House leading up to 2008. Coyotl Oct 2016 #12
What a disaster-- worse than we could have ever imagined ailsagirl Oct 2016 #13
Democrats had the House after the 2006 elections NewJeffCT Oct 2016 #38
We all KNOW what it's going to take..... Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2016 #10
^^^^this^^^^ mopinko Oct 2016 #17
HRC +2 in Ohio. mobeau69 Oct 2016 #14
As the ground game continues registering more people in Ohio. Good news. Coyotl Oct 2016 #15
Let's win the Presidency, let's win the Senate, let's win the House....then on to the Supreme Court! George II Oct 2016 #16
Undoing the Bush Junta is way past due, and we need the majority in Congress to do it. Coyotl Oct 2016 #18
You're not going back far enough........... socialist_n_TN Oct 2016 #20
Incredibly unlikely, but hope isn't a bad thing. whatthehey Oct 2016 #21
No longer very unlikely, that's the whole point of the story. It is happening with a month to go. Coyotl Oct 2016 #23
I don't think the average pop vote correlation is that strong though whatthehey Oct 2016 #28
You are right - this national average spread is VERY specious Cosmocat Oct 2016 #51
Would be incredible Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #22
And he won't show MFM008 Oct 2016 #33
#3 has a FOX moderator Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #34
Uhm, that seems awfully optimistic. progressoid Oct 2016 #24
Won't happen....there's no way davidn3600 Oct 2016 #26
Agreed Cosmocat Oct 2016 #52
2016 National House Race = Dems 46% versus Rep 37% Coyotl Oct 2016 #27
Yes !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for posting ColemanMaskell Oct 2016 #29
That would be great, but what about the Senate? ananda Oct 2016 #30
I have been BlueMTexpat Oct 2016 #31
The polls are not accounting for the shift in likely voters or the demographic shifts. Coyotl Oct 2016 #32
Yet another reason to GOTV NastyRiffraff Oct 2016 #35
Now that would bring about change! nt BainsBane Oct 2016 #36
The House isn't in play. SpankMe Oct 2016 #37
The House is always in play, with every member up for re-election. Coyotl Oct 2016 #39
False optimism leads to demoralization. former9thward Oct 2016 #40
False pessimisim leads to defeat. GOTV. Coyotl Oct 2016 #44
2016 House Election Interactive Map Coyotl Oct 2016 #41
Cook: 2016 House Race Ratings for October 4, 2016 Coyotl Oct 2016 #42
In Arizona we need to hold CD 1 and take CD 2 dbackjon Oct 2016 #43
I would be one happy fuckin' camper if that were to happen. Warren DeMontague Oct 2016 #45
Thanks Donald. Coyotl Oct 2016 #46
Now 16 of 54 GOP senators not supporting Trump. Republicans in a Catch 22, no win conundrum, if Coyotl Oct 2016 #47
House Democrats believe Trump troubles give them real shot at retaking majority Coyotl Oct 2016 #48
If she can get a double digit win over Trump, then I think the chances are good... cynatnite Oct 2016 #49
What a five-point shift could do = 455-83 Coyotl Oct 2016 #50
Trump may turn the House blue all by himself Gothmog Oct 2016 #53
Backlash from Trump supporters against GOP Reps? Il_Coniglietto Oct 2016 #54
This is happening. McCain is one of the people the Trump Tea party is lamblasting. Coyotl Oct 2016 #55
Clinton Shifts Message as She Eyes Congressional Takeover Coyotl Oct 2016 #56
Wouldn't that be sweet??? lillypaddle Oct 2016 #57
I'm not buying it. djg21 Oct 2016 #58
dKos House Race Ratings and House Rating Changes Coyotl Oct 2016 #59
Donald Trump took Republican bait and stupidly attacks only Ryan. Speaker Ryan's not running. Sunlei Oct 2016 #60
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