2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The House Is Back in Play [View all]Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Congress has the largest Republican majority since 1930, thanks to gerrymandering, while the popular vote is majority Democratic.
http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/house
3 Likely D = CA-36, CA-52, MD-06
5 Lean D = CA-07, CA-24, FL-13, NV-04, NY-03
18 Tossup = AZ-01, CO-06, FL-18, FL-26, IA-01, IL-10, MI-01, MN-02, MN-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-19, NY-22, NY-24, PA-08, TX-23
Republicans hold 247 of 435 seats, so picking up all of these (26) would be insufficient. However, the situation remains in flux and the trend with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket is a train wreck. The Trump locomotive (pun intended) has gone over the cliff and all the cars are attached. Another factor is turnout and polling has not been reliable on likely voters with a Republican bias, as seen in the Obama-Romney polls. Plus, registration continues in some states as of this writing so the current electoral demographic isn't fully accounted for yet in polling. There is a surge in new voters and that seems to be an anti-Trump dynamic. We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic, especially women voters. What we need is the ground game to make it happen, the possibility is definite.