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citood

(550 posts)
4. This will be lot closer than alot of people are projecting
Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:27 AM
Oct 2016

2012 was 332 vs 206.

I wouldn't characterize 332 as waaaaay over 300.

Do I think Hillary Clinton will outperform President Obama?

Well, I think there was a hidden 'neverRomney' movement, with evangelicals who would not vote for a Mormon. I don't think the 'neverTrump' republicans will outnumber the 'neverRomney' evangelicals...meaning I don't think Trump will underperform Romney. So its a question of whether or nor Hillary Clinton will get more votes than President Obama.

So now I look at the JPR group. There is disdain for them, to be sure...but they do exist. Some percentage (probably small, but measureable) of Democrats will stay home - 'neverClintons'.

For these reasons, I don't see it as being anything else but close.

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