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2016 Postmortem

Sunny05

(865 posts)

1. Good question. And here's a follow-up Q:

Reply to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 03:30 PM

Oct 2016

Do you mean projections like fivethirtyeight does? Or any news org/web site that averages and graphs trend lines?

Past that I infer you are getting at the numbers "dropping out" (my term) from those projections as early votes are no longer to be projected. And, as I said at the outset: good question! I wonder if any early voting is factored into those projections. If so, I would guess the number and percentage of votes happening early was probably underestimated!

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With so many folks opting for early voting; how how this figure into daily poll projections? [View all] Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 OP

Good question. And here's a follow-up Q: Sunny05 Oct 2016 #1

NYT/Upshot has a good analysis reasonabletexan Oct 2016 #2

So if more dems are voting early and their not in the polling projections Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #5

538 never makes sense triron Oct 2016 #6

Me neither Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #7

I prefer Sam Wang's triron Oct 2016 #9

I think early voters are in the projection triron Oct 2016 #8

I think, by far, the early voters are Dems -- based on fear of monster lines & other forms of voter Bill USA Oct 2016 #12

the more early vote the better, Clinton ground game will round up the rest, less to do on the 8th. sunonmars Oct 2016 #3

I would think that the more that opt for early voting Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #4

Confidence level of early voter determination improves. Coyotl Oct 2016 #10

Why in the f--- are those 538 polling projections ticking slightly down for Hillary. Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #11