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Response to elleng (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:21 PM

8. If I may add...

I think that the error in these estimates is on our side this time around, too.

"Democrats for Trump" is simply not a thing, and probably well inside of the margin of error. Far too many of us actually remember who Benito Mussolini actually was to vote for his stupider, coke-addled clone.

"Republicans AGAINST Trump," however, most certainly is a thing, and is likely to express itself in a number of ways: votes for Mrs. Clinton; votes squandered on third-parties or write-ins; or non-participation in the election. We know what the easiest of those routes is, and I'm crossing fingers for it.

There is another wrinkle to it, which is that several (mostly Republican) states appear to have rules which state that a ballot cast for a non-registered write-in candidate is considered erroneous and not counted at all. I'm not sure if I heard the news story correctly, but that could mean that protest votes negate the entire ballot, including votes for Republican undercard candidates. That could prove to be a devastating blow to Republican Congressional candidates as well.

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