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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » How Does Everyone KNOW Ho... » Reply #9

Response to MagickMuffin (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:25 PM

9. There are two ways

I can tell about Texas. One way is to look to see if the voters voted in either the Democratic or Republican primaries. Here is an example of someone doing this type of analysis https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/Early_Voting_Analysis_Report_Day_2.pdf In addition one can pull the profiles of all voters from the VAN and use the DNC modeling program to get a feel as how the voted. Neither method is 100% but gives the party a feel as to who has voted.

I am friends with a candidate in my county who has look at the early voters in his race and the VAN/DNC formula shows that the early vote through day 2 was 52% Democratic and 48% Republican.

Early vote ends in Texas on Nov. 4 and so the state party people can spend the weekend updating call lists to exclude people voted early and to guess where they stand based on the methods described above.

In Texas, the results of the early vote is announced shortly after the polls closed.

I hope that this helps

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