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DonCoquixote

(13,615 posts)
54. ^this
Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:17 PM
Nov 2016

"But the Clinton management team for Florida is not as good at their job as Obama's team was. "

This is what happens when you leave Debbuie Wassermann Schultz in power for too long, and let Human Abedin be stupid enough to point emails where her cyberporn addict husband can try to use her computer.

Apparently Nate was so shocked that DJT won the primary Dem2 Nov 2016 #1
Not happening Jason1961 Nov 2016 #77
:) Dem2 Nov 2016 #82
Are you sure? Why is Nate so spooked then? It seems to me like FL will be blue too AgadorSparticus Nov 2016 #107
the polls plus is very "predictive" heavy..... getagrip_already Nov 2016 #2
that's his model, not him. He programmed the model and those are the numbers geek tragedy Nov 2016 #3
I'm pretty sure Clinton wins Florida if... Joe941 Nov 2016 #5
that's the problem, they're not doing very well at GOTV in Florida, especially geek tragedy Nov 2016 #7
One thing to remember about Florida absentee voting... CherokeeDem Nov 2016 #22
I hope you are right. Joe941 Nov 2016 #50
Me, too!!!!! CherokeeDem Nov 2016 #95
That's what I did last election. Ended up not trusting the process, so voted in person. Native Nov 2016 #61
^this DonCoquixote Nov 2016 #54
Can't blame DWS for Clinton campaign strategy in FL. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #59
and just who the heck was supposed to help Hill will florida DonCoquixote Nov 2016 #94
How do you know they are not doing as good a job as Obama's team? Native Nov 2016 #66
Hillary Lefthacker Nov 2016 #4
Hes a hack, 60% unsubstantiated bs Foggyhill Nov 2016 #6
I was wondering who would be the first to call Nate a hack Capt. Obvious Nov 2016 #27
+1 n/t. okieinpain Nov 2016 #46
Nice bunch of nonsense jcgoldie Nov 2016 #35
My % are as close to truth as his and they were Foggyhill Nov 2016 #37
Great, link to your history of past elections, would love to see your blog! N/t ScienceIsGood Nov 2016 #45
Yes, he knows nothing about math and stuff, a complete idiot! N/t ScienceIsGood Nov 2016 #44
I can't believe he would move to Trump instead helpisontheway Nov 2016 #8
That actually has been my feel for a while Cosmocat Nov 2016 #30
Nate Silver has a website competing for traffic in the waning days of the election. BobbyDrake Nov 2016 #9
Dems tried to hide from the numbers in 2010, Rs in 2012 ... Cosmocat Nov 2016 #31
I checked...still blue. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #11
So long as Hillary holds PA, she's got this apnu Nov 2016 #14
Financial professionals only look at 538 and nothing elss AngryAmish Nov 2016 #20
Traders are mostly foin glam artists Foggyhill Nov 2016 #28
I don't see that many people undecided OkSustainAg Nov 2016 #21
this. Joe941 Nov 2016 #24
It's not so much the undecided, as it is who is actually going to vote. andym Nov 2016 #26
His model gives no clue about Foggyhill Nov 2016 #29
His models do give a clue about likely voters andym Nov 2016 #36
You should probably stop offering your eloquent opinions on this thread Capt. Obvious Nov 2016 #58
My background is computer engineering and physics Foggyhill Nov 2016 #62
I don't believe you Capt. Obvious Nov 2016 #74
It isn't just "undecideds" Cosmocat Nov 2016 #32
You might think that to be the case… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #80
This message was self-deleted by its author Joe941 Nov 2016 #23
He is using statistical methodology-- I think he is standing by his models andym Nov 2016 #25
Again, the same type if comments Foggyhill Nov 2016 #33
Statistics used correctly will include a confidence interval-- for example 95% andym Nov 2016 #38
It doesn't matter if the sample is not Foggyhill Nov 2016 #42
If the polling data is biased then things become tricky andym Nov 2016 #109
My view is supported by math and stat Foggyhill Nov 2016 #110
He's not including data from the outlier polls with the crap methodology is he? AgadorSparticus Nov 2016 #108
Both electoral vote.com and Real Clear Politcs have Hillary ahead Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Nov 2016 #39
I was not pleased with what I read in the paper this morn Motley13 Nov 2016 #40
iirc, Republicans usually *lead* in FL early voting, and not by a small margin 0rganism Nov 2016 #81
Souls to the polls is this Sunday! Native Nov 2016 #98
Hills will win FL. Ligyron Nov 2016 #41
Update: Polls only has also now turned red. Joe941 Nov 2016 #43
yeah, just saw that FL is in the light red column for all three predictors Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #47
Back voter turnout is down according to 538... Joe941 Nov 2016 #49
I had heard that as well...but heard that it might be due to limited polling locations Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #51
That was GOP cutting early vote days and locations. blm Nov 2016 #92
I don't think Nates model takes early voting into its analysis BadDog40 Nov 2016 #75
I want to ask a serious question with seemingly coming across as being overly "concerned" or a troll Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #53
The variations have mostly been eithn margins of error Foggyhill Nov 2016 #56
A minor clarification… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #103
"Don't worry!" say the confidence trolls. Beartracks Nov 2016 #55
ABSOLUTELY!!! Vote like your life depends on it Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #60
I better not hear DonCoquixote Nov 2016 #57
SEND GOTV DONATIONS TO NC - that is where HRC wins and Senate goes Democratic. blm Nov 2016 #65
To whom or where in NC? I'd be happy to send some $$ their way Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #68
Deborah Ross is senate candidate now tied with Burr. blm Nov 2016 #69
Done!!! Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #76
Just posted - thanks for the prompt. blm Nov 2016 #78
Just donated. How about a thread with links to Senate races we need to contribute to. chimpymustgo Nov 2016 #90
Good idea. Go for it, kiddo - post a thread. blm Nov 2016 #91
It's 3 hours later and it's blue. (Lightest blue, yes, but blue). LAS14 Nov 2016 #70
Oh. It's the difference between polls only and nowcast and polls plus. Damn. LAS14 Nov 2016 #71
How come it changes so much? Joe941 Nov 2016 #72
It has been said three days before the election people should ignore polling results nolabels Nov 2016 #73
Not a troll but Clinton will not win FL 0ccy01 Nov 2016 #79
I'm confused. Why are you smiling when you say that, and why are you not moonscape Nov 2016 #85
Update: NC turned red for the polls plus forecast. Joe941 Nov 2016 #83
Survey USA has it +7 Trump today in NC MadBadger Nov 2016 #93
hahaha never obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #101
It's moved from very pale blue to very pale pink. The 0 point isn't actually that significant. Donald Ian Rankin Nov 2016 #84
Good point. Joe941 Nov 2016 #86
At 5:17, all measures are in Hillary's favor. LAS14 Nov 2016 #87
NC was because of that bullshit Survey USA poll that has Trump +7 budkin Nov 2016 #89
I hope you are right but it seems clear that the race has tightened greatly since Comey and Chaffetz StevieM Nov 2016 #96
Trump is not winning NC by 7 obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #102
That's because of the Survey USA poll today of NC triron Nov 2016 #97
Poor OP, they are blue again obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #99
im not a conspiracy believer but i dont okieinpain Nov 2016 #99
Oh Noes!!! DarthDem Nov 2016 #104
Volatility? ham_actor Nov 2016 #106
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