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Apparently Nate was so shocked that DJT won the primary Dem2 Nov 2016 #1
Not happening Jason1961 Nov 2016 #77
:) Dem2 Nov 2016 #82
Are you sure? Why is Nate so spooked then? It seems to me like FL will be blue too AgadorSparticus Nov 2016 #107
the polls plus is very "predictive" heavy..... getagrip_already Nov 2016 #2
that's his model, not him. He programmed the model and those are the numbers geek tragedy Nov 2016 #3
I'm pretty sure Clinton wins Florida if... Joe941 Nov 2016 #5
that's the problem, they're not doing very well at GOTV in Florida, especially geek tragedy Nov 2016 #7
One thing to remember about Florida absentee voting... CherokeeDem Nov 2016 #22
I hope you are right. Joe941 Nov 2016 #50
Me, too!!!!! CherokeeDem Nov 2016 #95
That's what I did last election. Ended up not trusting the process, so voted in person. Native Nov 2016 #61
^this DonCoquixote Nov 2016 #54
Can't blame DWS for Clinton campaign strategy in FL. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #59
and just who the heck was supposed to help Hill will florida DonCoquixote Nov 2016 #94
How do you know they are not doing as good a job as Obama's team? Native Nov 2016 #66
Hillary Lefthacker Nov 2016 #4
Hes a hack, 60% unsubstantiated bs Foggyhill Nov 2016 #6
I was wondering who would be the first to call Nate a hack Capt. Obvious Nov 2016 #27
+1 n/t. okieinpain Nov 2016 #46
Nice bunch of nonsense jcgoldie Nov 2016 #35
My % are as close to truth as his and they were Foggyhill Nov 2016 #37
Great, link to your history of past elections, would love to see your blog! N/t ScienceIsGood Nov 2016 #45
Yes, he knows nothing about math and stuff, a complete idiot! N/t ScienceIsGood Nov 2016 #44
I can't believe he would move to Trump instead helpisontheway Nov 2016 #8
That actually has been my feel for a while Cosmocat Nov 2016 #30
Nate Silver has a website competing for traffic in the waning days of the election. BobbyDrake Nov 2016 #9
Dems tried to hide from the numbers in 2010, Rs in 2012 ... Cosmocat Nov 2016 #31
I checked...still blue. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #11
So long as Hillary holds PA, she's got this apnu Nov 2016 #14
Financial professionals only look at 538 and nothing elss AngryAmish Nov 2016 #20
Traders are mostly foin glam artists Foggyhill Nov 2016 #28
I don't see that many people undecided OkSustainAg Nov 2016 #21
this. Joe941 Nov 2016 #24
It's not so much the undecided, as it is who is actually going to vote. andym Nov 2016 #26
His model gives no clue about Foggyhill Nov 2016 #29
His models do give a clue about likely voters andym Nov 2016 #36
You should probably stop offering your eloquent opinions on this thread Capt. Obvious Nov 2016 #58
My background is computer engineering and physics Foggyhill Nov 2016 #62
I don't believe you Capt. Obvious Nov 2016 #74
It isn't just "undecideds" Cosmocat Nov 2016 #32
You might think that to be the case… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #80
This message was self-deleted by its author Joe941 Nov 2016 #23
He is using statistical methodology-- I think he is standing by his models andym Nov 2016 #25
Again, the same type if comments Foggyhill Nov 2016 #33
Statistics used correctly will include a confidence interval-- for example 95% andym Nov 2016 #38
It doesn't matter if the sample is not Foggyhill Nov 2016 #42
If the polling data is biased then things become tricky andym Nov 2016 #109
My view is supported by math and stat Foggyhill Nov 2016 #110
He's not including data from the outlier polls with the crap methodology is he? AgadorSparticus Nov 2016 #108
Both electoral vote.com and Real Clear Politcs have Hillary ahead Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Nov 2016 #39
I was not pleased with what I read in the paper this morn Motley13 Nov 2016 #40
iirc, Republicans usually *lead* in FL early voting, and not by a small margin 0rganism Nov 2016 #81
Souls to the polls is this Sunday! Native Nov 2016 #98
Hills will win FL. Ligyron Nov 2016 #41
Update: Polls only has also now turned red. Joe941 Nov 2016 #43
yeah, just saw that FL is in the light red column for all three predictors Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #47
Back voter turnout is down according to 538... Joe941 Nov 2016 #49
I had heard that as well...but heard that it might be due to limited polling locations Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #51
That was GOP cutting early vote days and locations. blm Nov 2016 #92
I don't think Nates model takes early voting into its analysis BadDog40 Nov 2016 #75
I want to ask a serious question with seemingly coming across as being overly "concerned" or a troll Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #53
The variations have mostly been eithn margins of error Foggyhill Nov 2016 #56
A minor clarification… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #103
"Don't worry!" say the confidence trolls. Beartracks Nov 2016 #55
ABSOLUTELY!!! Vote like your life depends on it Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #60
I better not hear DonCoquixote Nov 2016 #57
SEND GOTV DONATIONS TO NC - that is where HRC wins and Senate goes Democratic. blm Nov 2016 #65
To whom or where in NC? I'd be happy to send some $$ their way Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #68
Deborah Ross is senate candidate now tied with Burr. blm Nov 2016 #69
Done!!! Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #76
Just posted - thanks for the prompt. blm Nov 2016 #78
Just donated. How about a thread with links to Senate races we need to contribute to. chimpymustgo Nov 2016 #90
Good idea. Go for it, kiddo - post a thread. blm Nov 2016 #91
It's 3 hours later and it's blue. (Lightest blue, yes, but blue). LAS14 Nov 2016 #70
Oh. It's the difference between polls only and nowcast and polls plus. Damn. LAS14 Nov 2016 #71
How come it changes so much? Joe941 Nov 2016 #72
It has been said three days before the election people should ignore polling results nolabels Nov 2016 #73
Not a troll but Clinton will not win FL 0ccy01 Nov 2016 #79
I'm confused. Why are you smiling when you say that, and why are you not moonscape Nov 2016 #85
Update: NC turned red for the polls plus forecast. Joe941 Nov 2016 #83
Survey USA has it +7 Trump today in NC MadBadger Nov 2016 #93
hahaha never obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #101
It's moved from very pale blue to very pale pink. The 0 point isn't actually that significant. Donald Ian Rankin Nov 2016 #84
Good point. Joe941 Nov 2016 #86
At 5:17, all measures are in Hillary's favor. LAS14 Nov 2016 #87
NC was because of that bullshit Survey USA poll that has Trump +7 budkin Nov 2016 #89
I hope you are right but it seems clear that the race has tightened greatly since Comey and Chaffetz StevieM Nov 2016 #96
Trump is not winning NC by 7 obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #102
That's because of the Survey USA poll today of NC triron Nov 2016 #97
Poor OP, they are blue again obamanut2012 Nov 2016 #99
im not a conspiracy believer but i dont okieinpain Nov 2016 #99
Oh Noes!!! DarthDem Nov 2016 #104
Volatility? ham_actor Nov 2016 #106
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Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Nate Silver moved Florida...»Reply #58