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Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
9. Sorry, the state polls make no sense in relation to a 6 point Hillary lead
Sat Nov 5, 2016, 10:22 PM
Nov 2016

Not even close. They are much more in line with a 3 point national advantage.

For example, if Hillary leads nationally by 6 points but her Pennsylvania edge is 4-5 points, then you're trying to tell me Pennsylvania has a slight red tilt. The states you picked are not in play. No advertising blitz. The margins can shift considerably in situations like that from cycle to cycle. Republicans used to contest Washington state more than they do now, so naturally the blue edge can rise.

I've used the partisan index for 20 years and used to post the statewide numbers here more than a decade ago, before it was widespread to do so.

Keep in mind that this cycle is challenging from a partisan index perspective because Trump has unusual strength in states with high percentage of whites but not as many Hispanics or blacks than other swing states. The partisan index in states like Ohio and especially Iowa figures to shift into territory we haven't seen before, at least not recently. Those states may also move against us in general, similar to states like West Virginia and Missouri over the past 15 years or so.

Many states are in partisan index flux currently. Quite interesting. Most in our favor but some of them are still Hail Mary caliber, like Arizona and Georgia and Texas.


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