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BzaDem

(11,142 posts)
11. His model is mostly based on state polls.
Sat Nov 5, 2016, 10:37 PM
Nov 2016

He does use the national polls to adjust state polls, but he says that only 10-20% of the uncertainty comes from that. He says the other 80-90% comes from other factors (larger than normal undecided/third-party factor, higher variability in the polls, correlations between states, etc.)

He also said that if the national polls all uniformly ticked up a point, his model would show Trump as still having a 25-30% chance of winning.

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