2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: What lessons do YOU take from the results? [View all]BeyondGeography
(39,347 posts)and identity politics is not a strategy. Hillary lost white women by ten points and turned out millions fewer base voters than Barack Obama. It came down to the quality of the candidate, who had obvious strengths but too many limitations and weaknesses and was unable to overcome an unconventional opponent whose emotional connections to his voters, rancid as they were, enabled him to outperform a lot of turnout models.
You could argue that Trump's win was a triumph of identity politics, but he ran up the score in deep red counties where Obama had been more competitive. Obama won 69 million votes in 2008 by getting a lot of people we didn't get this time around to vote their hopes and not their fears. Trump accomplished pretty much the reverse, but it wasn't all fear-based. Incredible as it seems, a lot of his voters actually expect him to make Washington work better for them. Both, in any case, drove turnout by connecting emotionally.
All elections are different but it always helps to be in tune with the moment. Demographics, identity and a great resume for that matter aren't enough.