2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Wow - the concern trolls were right. [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)They just shifted the wrong way. Polls predicted a far closer Obama win than he eventually saw. Much of that was due to the fact so many states were within the MOE. Obama did what Hillary couldn't, though, and won most, if not all, those states.
I think it was a mix of a few things...
1) The Comey letter helped depress turnour.
2) The retraction probably fired up conservatives
3) Enthusiasm was higher for Trump than Clinton
4) A lot of Democrats thought the election was in the bag
A very similar election to 2004, IMO.
As for Ron Johnson, polls suggested the race would be tight and there was a clear trend in the final polls that indicated there was a shift toward Johnson in the final days. A week before the election, Feingold held a near-7 point lead. That was down three points by election day. A shift there that probably also indicated as much at the presidential level...but no one really believed Hillary would lose Wisconsin.
It sucks.