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Response to LonePirate (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 6, 2016, 07:58 PM

5. Clinton lost by 180,000 votes here; Cooper won by 15,000 I think, so that's about a 200k delta.

Keep in mind that the delta doesn't necessarily result from split tickets; it could also result from people simply leaving the presidential portion blank, or voting a protest candidate (Johnson or Stein).

Among other things, Roy Cooper is pro-choice on guns and was NRA-endorsed in prior elections, whereas during the primaries Clinton advocated banning popular rifles and magazines that about 2 million North Carolinians own, a position that is hugely unpopular here outside of Durham/etc. I'm not sure if that's the primary reason for the split, but the margin of loss is less than 10% of that 2 million, so even a 20% undervote with 50% turnout among that group would more than account for the delta between Cooper and Clinton.

There may be other issues in play as well, e.g. Cooper being a North Carolinian vs. the NY/DC-centric tone of the campaign, but I think the proposed bans were a big one. The NY SAFE Act or California's bans would *not* play here.

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
hrmjustin Dec 2016 OP
LonePirate Dec 2016 #1
hrmjustin Dec 2016 #3
LineLineNew Reply Clinton lost by 180,000 votes here; Cooper won by 15,000 I think, so that's about a 200k delta.
benEzra Dec 2016 #5
ebbie15644 Dec 2016 #2
hrmjustin Dec 2016 #4
JI7 Dec 2016 #6
Grown2Hate Dec 2016 #7
triron Dec 2016 #8
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