The Republicans Are in Big Trouble: Mid-term elections prediction for 2014

[davidpdx]

55. The Senate will be 54-46 with the two independents

with the passing of Senator Lautenburg at least until a special election is held in which we can hopefully regain the seat. The Senators who are in their 80s and 90s and die in office put the party in a peculiar place with having to defend their seats on such short notice. Whomever wins the special election has to turn around and run again next year for a full election. That's two election cycles that need to be funded to hold a Senate seat which takes money away from other areas.

In terms of your numbers for the Senate, there is no way the Democrats will reach 60 with the two independents. We will be extremely lucky if we hold the same number we have. Remember there are quite a few more Democrats retiring than Republicans and quite a few more seats held by the Democrats that are up for election then there are Republicans.

The House really is the wildcard though. I can tell you with 100% certainty the Oregon House delegation will end up staying 4-1 D.

According to Wikipedia the count is:

Republicans 233
Democrats 201
Vacant 1

Unless these numbers are off (which they could be) we need 17 seats (218 is the majority). I think that is possible (much more so than 60 in the Senate). It won't be easy though.