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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Before the "poll panic" sets in, might we have a word? [View all]caseymoz
(5,763 posts)20. Some information about polls pollsters don't tell you.
You know when they give the error, plus or minus three percent, six percent, have you ever wondered what actually means?
It means there's a 95 percent certainty the poll will be within the margin of error. This percentage presumes that all scientifically valid procedures are followed, and assumptions (such as cellphone users not having different opinions from landliners) are accurate, you can count on the poll being within the margin of error 19 out of 20 times.
And wildly wrong 1 in 20 times!
We live in an imperfect world. So imperfect, we can't tell how imperfect we are.
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No -- it's my last name. Never knew there was a character in the movie with that name! Probably
gateley
Apr 2012
#10
Thanks! It's a name you rarely hear so it's extra surprising to know it was a character
gateley
Apr 2012
#45
The problem is that the Republicans have so many different vote stealing and vote
tblue37
Apr 2012
#17
Many people aren't even paying a lick of attention yet. They are called in a poll
glowing
Apr 2012
#28