Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

caseymoz

(5,763 posts)
20. Some information about polls pollsters don't tell you.
Sat Apr 21, 2012, 01:45 AM
Apr 2012

You know when they give the error, plus or minus three percent, six percent, have you ever wondered what actually means?

It means there's a 95 percent certainty the poll will be within the margin of error. This percentage presumes that all scientifically valid procedures are followed, and assumptions (such as cellphone users not having different opinions from landliners) are accurate, you can count on the poll being within the margin of error 19 out of 20 times.

And wildly wrong 1 in 20 times!

We live in an imperfect world. So imperfect, we can't tell how imperfect we are.

Good warning. Thanks! freshwest Apr 2012 #1
Your welcome, freshwest. MarianJack Apr 2012 #2
Yes, I can. Jackpine Radical Apr 2012 #3
you know, Jackpine Radical,... MarianJack Apr 2012 #6
K&R gateley Apr 2012 #4
Thanks, gately. MarianJack Apr 2012 #7
No -- it's my last name. Never knew there was a character in the movie with that name! Probably gateley Apr 2012 #10
The character was played by Hugh Marlow (spelling?) and... MarianJack Apr 2012 #12
Interesting -- thanks!! nt gateley Apr 2012 #14
You're welcome. MarianJack Apr 2012 #16
Hugh Marlowe played the rôle of Lt. Col. Ben Gately Tx4obama Apr 2012 #19
Thanks! It's a name you rarely hear so it's extra surprising to know it was a character gateley Apr 2012 #45
k/r Dawson Leery Apr 2012 #5
Thanks, Dawson Leery. MarianJack Apr 2012 #8
54%-44%. Dawson Leery Apr 2012 #9
Actually, pretty darn good! MarianJack Apr 2012 #11
More succinctly: National polls are always meaningless in our EV system. PSPS Apr 2012 #13
This is true. MarianJack Apr 2012 #15
They're only meaningless when it's a very close election Hippo_Tron Apr 2012 #48
The problem is that the Republicans have so many different vote stealing and vote tblue37 Apr 2012 #17
Election stealing is a BIG concern. MarianJack Apr 2012 #22
When A Candidate Becomes The "Presumptive Nominee" DallasNE Apr 2012 #18
That's usually a pretty good timetable. MarianJack Apr 2012 #21
Some information about polls pollsters don't tell you. caseymoz Apr 2012 #20
And the wildly wrong... MarianJack Apr 2012 #23
That's explained by the "scientific procedure" part. nt caseymoz Apr 2012 #24
The sky is falling Flying Squirrel Apr 2012 #25
Fortunately, the sky falling... MarianJack Apr 2012 #30
K&R great white snark Apr 2012 #26
Thank you, great white snark. MarianJack Apr 2012 #31
While it might make us feel better between now and then Cosmocat Apr 2012 #27
Your point, Cosmocat,... MarianJack Apr 2012 #32
Fair enough Cosmocat Apr 2012 #35
The house is certainly in play. Dawson Leery Apr 2012 #38
Many people aren't even paying a lick of attention yet. They are called in a poll glowing Apr 2012 #28
bain romney... MarianJack Apr 2012 #33
Well done Sir. bemildred Apr 2012 #29
Always... MarianJack Apr 2012 #34
No matter if you're ahead 20 points in the polls, you must campaign like you're 20 points behind. amb123 Apr 2012 #36
True, amb123. MarianJack Apr 2012 #37
Adding a K&R Grateful for Hope Apr 2012 #39
Thanks, grateful for Hope. MarianJack Apr 2012 #41
Allow me to retort (just a little) Taverner Apr 2012 #40
Yes, choreographed conventions reflect that... MarianJack Apr 2012 #42
PEACE INDEED!!!! Taverner Apr 2012 #43
My father,... MarianJack Apr 2012 #46
No panic here at all. Not only is it way too early... Liberal_Stalwart71 Apr 2012 #44
No panic from me, either, but... MarianJack Apr 2012 #47
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Before the "poll pan...»Reply #20